(by Pasquale Preziosa) Who will defend tomorrow's Europe? There is no answer to this question, none of the European countries has a precise idea and any innovative initiative triggers the spring of conservatism in European countries, creating stagnation of thought. According to the founding fathers, European countries will have to live together to avoid further disasters after the two World Wars.
The great message shared by all European nations after the Second World War seems to have been put aside, European society seems to have lost the horizon of its future. The 75 years of peace in Europe guaranteed by the NATO military alliance seem to have made us forget European disasters and aspirations, precisely at the most critical moment of global geopolitical development. The whole world is today looking for a new international order, capable of guaranteeing peace and solidarity.
It is the balance of international forces that guarantees security and therefore peace.
Secondo Jan Techau, when the US is mentally absent from Europe demand if the European Union can do security and defense it becomes crucial.
NATO counts only if there are Americans: Europeans alone cannot guarantee security and order.
All the European Union's initiatives in the field of security and defense have not consolidated any European defense pillar, on the contrary: they have contributed to creating more perplexities than solutions.
European defense initiatives such as EDF (European Defense Fund) and PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation) seem more industrial than political.
The European Defense Council is not there.
In the minds of the European countries each seems to have its own recipe for solving the problems of Europe's defense, which is almost never shared by the others. Confusion about the future of Europe is growing and with it uncertainty.
The great world powers have only one goal: decrease the number of countries competing for the new world order: the European Union with its potential 16/18 trillion $ of GDP is a big competitor both for the USA (20 trillion $ of GDP) and for China (12 trillion GDP), both for Russia but not for GDP (better to have weak countries on the borders).
The USA they changed their attitude towards today's Europe, after the Second World War they wanted it united with a liberal market today they do not want it united and encourage it to fall apart (Brexit, Italexit).
The disintegration of the European Union would also bring benefits to China with its initiative of the new silk road.
For the USA, the problem is the Euro which is the second most used currency in terms of share of global payments.
According to data from the European Commission, in 2017 its share amounted to about 36% of the market, while the US dollar represented 40% of the total.
The share of the Euro, born a few years ago, in world currency reserves amounts to 20% and is increasing as many countries want dedollarization (Russia primarily with Rosneft), while the dollar is at 60%.
The advantages of strengthening the role of the Euro pose a major problem for the US dollar: the world reference currency gives enormous advantages to the country that prints it.
Therefore, according to the transatlantic vision, only a weak European Union can guarantee the supremacy of the dollar on the world market.
The USA is therefore mentally absent for Europe's security arrangements, confirmed by the French declaration that NATO is brainless.
The German declaration of support for NATO has not been so penetrating as to upset the negative geopolitical framework created, the transatlantic relationship of trust on the NATO pillar has deteriorated and its future is now uncertain.
Europe as a whole is not ready to assume its responsibilities in terms of defense, it is also confused within it.
In spite of the uniqueness of command dictated by Sun Tzu 2500 years ago, the European Union, for its small military and civil missions, has set up many Headquarters (OHQ) (Centocelle, Rota, Lárisa, ...) distributed in rain among the countries concerned, highlighting the absence of development plans for military and civilian operations.
The EU Battlegroups, planned and ready for fourteen years on a rotational basis, have never been used operationally by the European Union, even when they have been requested by a European country for external security needs, making this set-up unnecessary and expensive for individual countries .
In Europe there is a general reluctance to invest on the Defense pillar, accompanied by an underdeveloped strategic culture.
To this must be added the historical distrust between the individual countries that has not died out in the 75 years of peace ensured by NATO, as soon as the USA has hinted at the disengagement from Europe the old European evils have resurfaced.
To say it with Zhou Enlai, the Europeans "they sleep in the same bed but do not have the same dreams. "
Without a relationship of trust no future is built.
The European Union must be completed according to the indications of the founding fathers with the rules most suited to us. We must think about our Defense and Security, to guarantee us a peaceful future as we have already experienced with NATO. The US has repeatedly stressed that Europe, not being poor, cannot be defended by citizens and the US dollar. It is time to walk with our legs and to think with our "brain".
Taking on important responsibilities requires understanding the problems that have come to maturity and looking for solutions that can open up processes of change.
Peace is the value to be pursued, the construction of a new form of defense for Europe can constitute the start of an innovative process capable of strengthening itself, without ever underestimating the need to understand the constraints of reality.
Europe must start building the European Defense Pillar within NATO in order to operate and take advantage of existing structures and procedures.
In the next ten years (2030) Xi Jinping said that China will achieve the "dominance" of artificial intelligence. Putin said that those who achieve "dominance" in artificial intelligence will win the new industrial revolution.
Il Gen. Jack Shanahan, to the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (AI) USA he said that future battles will be characterized by "algorithms against algorithms", and the best algorithm will be the winner, the old chains of command and control are no longer sufficient.
In the coming years, the economic growth of developing countries, combined with the demographic factor, will make many of the differences between industrialized and non-industrialized countries disappear.
Europe has only one possibility: to get involved and become a relevant player, to maintain global balance
In the past, between the two wars, the withdrawal of the USA from Europe caused great disasters.
There is not much time and there are no known alternatives for taking action and completing the European defense plan, which is primarily political and then industrial.