Once intelligence could predict the enemy's moves well in advance, now, apparently, it has failed to read Russia's real intentions. You have often told of Putin's bluff. We started talking about the invasion of Ukraine only after the fact, that is when Moscow amassed over 150 thousand men close to the eastern borders of Ukraine, exploiting the inertia of the West on the one hand and the friendship of countries that orbited in the sphere of influence of the former USSR, such as Belarus which, without any hesitation, hosts and exercises with the Russians. Not to mention the military ships that the Kremlin has sent to the Black Sea, with the intention of encircling the enemy and preventing them from commercial access to the sea.
NATO is confident in affirming that the most important Russian strike forces are positioned in Belarus, where they receive logistical assistance and continuous supplies of food and services. From there in the next few hours they could advance towards Kiev. Not only armored vehicles, in Belarus there are also missiles and aircraft with Iskander hypersonic cruise ships.
The Belarusian border is only 150 kilometers from that of Kaliningrad, the only Russian land left in the Baltic where armored vehicles could be positioned in a few hours, as well as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, once part of the USSR and now members of the EU and of the Born, they would find themselves again surrounded by Russia.
Putin wants to take back the legacy of history: the Red Army conquered Kalingrad in the Second World War and did not abandon it even in the dissolution of the Soviet empire, counting on the support of an entirely Russian population. Over the last decade, Putin has transformed the free port of trade with the West into a security bastion full of missiles, ready to bar anyone from accessing the Baltic. Two weeks ago, he further upgraded it with lightning-fast Mig-31s equipped with what he called the invincible super-weapon. And the outpost of Mother Russia has been on high alert ever since.
NATO is on the alert. President Biden has promised to defend the allies and the Pentagon has ordered the immediate dispatch of twenty Apache (anti tank) helicopters over the Baltic and twelve to Poland. Another 800 US soldiers will join the Atlantic battlegroups already present in those countries in the next few hours, where our Alpine troops of Taurinense. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are small nations, without aviation and the protection of the skies is now entrusted to 18 Alliance interceptors, including six American F15 Eagles. And again last night the deployment of eight F35s was decided.
"This is the most dangerous time for European security in generations, preparations are in place for a full-scale attack ", said the NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg. The crisis has already spread from Ukraine to the Baltic, paving the way for a direct challenge between Russia and NATO. The front where fear is concentrated however remains the Donbass, with fears of an imminent offensive. The Moscow tanks are now on the border and show some Zetas painted on the sides (the reason for this tactical choice is not yet clear), but also triangles and circles (recalling the macabre movie Squid Game).
Intelligence reports claim that those with a "Z" will target Kharkiv; those with the "triangle" will direct on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk while those with the "circle" will be the mobile reserve. In the Crimea, white horizontal stripes appeared on the armored vehicles.
All signs that do not bode well for a diplomatic solution to the crisis.