Even though the differences between the growth forecasts of the individual regions are minimal, the Northeast, in any case, is once again driving the country's economy. In fact, in 2022, the GDP of Veneto is destined to increase by 3,4 percent. No other Italian region is set to do better. Immediately after we see Lombardy with 3,3 and Emilia Romagna, another northeast region, with 3,2. At the bottom, however, we see the Marche with an increase of 2,4 per cent, Basilicata with 2,3 and, finally, Calabria with 2,1.
The data emerge from an analysis carried out by the CGIA Studies Office on the territorial scenarios presented in recent weeks by Prometeia. Furthermore, within this year, only 7 out of 20 regions will recover the level of GDP they had before the advent of the pandemic (2019). They are: Lombardy, Emilia Romagna, Valle d'Aosta, Puglia, Abruzzo, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Trentino Alto Adige. The other 13, however, still not. The territorial realities that have struggled more than others to recover the lost ground are Tuscany (-1,4 per cent), Calabria (-1,8) and, finally, Sardinia (-2,1).
• The unknowns of next autumn
Compared to the forecasts presented in recent weeks by the main national economic-statistical institutes, those referred to in this analysis are, on the other hand, more prudent. In fact, in 2022, the average growth of Italian GDP is estimated at 2,9 per cent. A level lower than that assumed, for example, in recent weeks by the Bank of Italy (+3,2 per cent) or the growth figure acquired by Istat (+3,4). The CGIA Studies Office believes, in fact, that the economic / social scenario will be particularly difficult next autumn. Expensive energy, galloping inflation, the developments of the war in Ukraine and a possible resurgence of Covid risk "holding back" the economic momentum gained in Italy in the first part of this year with more force than expected.
• The recovery comes from aid, tourism, investments and exports
Public aid disbursed by the Draghi government to counter the crisis, the good trend in tourist numbers, investments (especially in construction) and exports are the most significant items that are underpinning the current economic recovery. As regards household consumption, which, we recall, constitutes approximately 60 percent of the entire national GDP, they should rise by 2021 percent compared to 2,8, even if compared to 2019 they are still lower by 4,1. At a regional level, the most important variations from 2022 to 2021 are reported in Lombardy, and Veneto (both +3,4 per cent) and in Valle d'Aosta (+3,3).
As regards investments, this year they increased by 9,9 per cent, with peaks of 10,4 in Lombardy, 10,3 in Emilia Romagna and 10,2 in Sicily, Piedmont, Campania and Puglia. Compared to the pre-Covid situation, the national average figure has increased by as much as 16,9 percent.
Finally, as regards exports, this year the national figure should increase by 6,3 percent, with particularly positive peaks in Sicily (+15,5 percent), Liguria (+12,3), Valle d'Aosta (+12,2) and Calabria (+11,8). Compared to 3 years ago, our overseas sales have increased by 9 percent.
• Boom growth in the 2 provinces of Venezia Giulia
Regarding economic growth, measured at the provincial level by the added value, Venezia Giulia stands out: Gorizia with +4,4 percent and Trieste with +4,3 lead the national ranking. Sondrio, on the other hand, with +4,1 occupies the third step of the podium. Equally significant is the expected result in Barletta, Caserta and Monza-Brianza (all with 4 percent), Brindisi and Verona (both with +3,9 percent). Although growth is still positive, Pordenone, Cagliari and Viterbo (with +1,9 percent) and, finally, Vibo Valentia and Reggio Calabria (both with +1,7 percent) close the ranking at national level. Compared to 2019, 51 out of 107 provinces have yet to recover the loss of GDP caused by the pandemic crisis. The most critical situations are recorded in Pisa (-3,5 percent), Rovigo (-3,8), Brindisi (- 4,0), Macerata (-4,1), Vibo Valentia (-4,3) and Belluno (-5,2).
