The Ukrainian counter-offensive is proving to be less effective than Kiev had hoped for and Ukraine must accept the fact that it will fail to achieve the main objectives it has set itself.
According to US intelligence, it is practically impossible for the Ukrainian army to reach the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, although they could recapture closer locations such as Tokmak. This was revealed by WP, according to rumors of US intelligence officials who revealed the news on condition of anonymity.
Melitopol is strategically located for Moscow, at the crossroads of two major highways and a railway line used by the Russians to move troops and supplies from Crimea to other occupied territories in southern Ukraine. It is therefore evident that the reconquest of Melitopol by Kiev represents one of the main objectives of the offensive. However, the WP always writes, the Ukrainian offensive would be "hampered by minefields" and that is why Kiev's military will not reach the south-eastern city of Melitopol. The assessment is based on the proven skill of the Russian military in being able to defend the occupied territory through the dissemination of effective minefields and trenches.
This is one of the reasons that will lead Kiev and the Western world to reevaluate the counter-offensive announced and considered resolved. Many doubts arise about the effectiveness of the weapon systems supplied and the hundreds of billions given to the Zelensky government.
According to the intelligence report, Ukrainian forces trying to reach Melitopol from Robotyne, more than 50 miles away, "will remain several kilometers from the city".
“Russia has three main defensive lines and then fortified cities. It's not just a question of whether Ukraine can overcome one or two, but it must overcome all three and then have significant forces at its disposal to take Tokmak and go further."Rob Lee, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told the newspaper.
US sources reject criticisms that with F16s or long-range missiles the result of the counteroffensive would have been different. “The problem remains breaking through the main Russian defensive line, and there is no evidence that these systems would have been a panacea”they stated.
The US Chief of Defense Staff, General Mark milley, in recent days he recalled that already "I said a couple of months ago that this offensive was going to be long and bloody, and that's exactly what it is: long, bloody, slow and very, very difficult“. Regarding the objectives, the general said that Kiev is still having success in wearing down the Russian forces: "They have suffered many losses, morale is not at its best".
Ukraine launched its counter-offensive in early June, hoping to replicate the success it achieved last fall in the Kharkiv region. But in the first week of fighting, Ukraine suffered heavy losses against Russia's well-prepared defenses, despite having a host of recently acquired Western equipment, including US Bradley fighting vehicles, Leopard 2 tanks German-made and specialized demining vehicles.
Ukraine has chosen to cut losses on the battlefield and use a tactic of using smaller units to advance in different areas of the front. As a result, Ukraine made incremental gains in several pockets over the course of the summer. Recently, Kiev has dedicated more reserves to the front, including Stryker and Challenger units, but has yet to break through Russia's main defensive line.
The uninspiring prospects, communicated to some Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill, have already raised tensions among lawmakers in closed meetings. Some Republicans oppose President Biden's request to give an additional $20,6 billion in aid to Ukraine, given the modest results of the offensive.
Other Republicans and, to a lesser extent, reproached the administration for not sending Ukraine more powerful weapons earlier. US officials reject criticisms that F-16 fighter jets or longer-range missile systems like the ATACMS would have led to a different outcome.
US officials said the Pentagon had repeatedly recommended Ukraine concentrate a large mass of forces on a single breakthrough point. Though Ukraine opted for a different strategy, officials said it was Kiev's decision, given the profound sacrifice Ukrainian troops were making on the battlefield.
On Thursday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba acknowledged the slow pace of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, but said Kiev would not stop fighting until it has retaken all the territory. “We don't care how long it takes”he told the Agence France-Presse news agency. He encouraged critics of the offensive to "go to join the foreign legion” if they want faster results. “It's easy to say you want everything to be faster when you're not there,” It reaffirmed. The timing depends on how quickly forces penetrate the minefields, Ukrainian officials said - a difficult process that has strained military resources for demining across a large swath of territory. According to analysts, the challenges facing Ukraine are many, but almost all agree that Russia has exceeded expectations in terms of its ability to defend the occupied territory.
The Ukrainians poured enormous resources on Bakhmut for months, including soldiers, munitions and time, but they lost control of the city and made only modest gains in conquering the surrounding territory. While the dogfights in the trenches are different in Bakhmut than the landmine problem in the south, the focus has left some in the Biden administration concerned that overengagement in the east may have eroded the potency of the counteroffensive in the south. The new intelligence assessment aligns with a secret US forecast from February, which indicates that shortages in equipment and forces could mean that the counteroffensive will be "a far cry" from Ukraine's goal of cutting the land bridge to the Crimea by August.
A defense official also said Ukraine could continue its counteroffensive during the winter, when everything, including keeping soldiers warm and stocked with food and ammunition, becomes much more difficult. But that would depend on several important factors, such as how much rest troops need after a tough season of fighting. It will also depend on how much specialized equipment and cold-weather clothing they have on hand, the defense official said.
However, Moscow could be more performing during winter military operations: “It is known that the Russians are able to fight in cold conditions.” the official emphasized.
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