The fact that such an important figure of the Sdf has abandoned Pyd and has been handed over to Ankara, its enemy, raises questions about what is happening within the Kurdish-Arab coalition that has distinguished itself for its valiant and uncompromising struggle the caliphate seduced of the IS. "Certainly after the defeat of the ISA at Raqqa, the dynamics of the forces in the field are changing," explains Professor Michelangelo Guida, head of the Faculty of Economics and Administration at 29 Mayis University in Istanbul, at "Nova Agency". In fact Talal Silo is not a Kurdish but a Turcoman. He had joined the struggle against the Syrian Democratic Forces and had distinguished himself for his military capabilities until he became a commander. According to Professor Guidance this alliance is showing some cracks.
"The common danger represented by the IS is vanishing and there has been misunderstanding within the Sdf. Let's not forget that the news of Silo's defeat spread shortly after the BBC had revealed that the same Kurdish-Syrian forces that fought against Is for the liberation of the city had allowed little more than 3.000 state fighters is Islamic to leave Raqqa with their own families and their weapons, both the light and the heavy ones - explains Guide -. And this has created disconcerting not only within Syria and the international community but also within the same organization. The various factions obviously disagreed with this strategy: to let the IS militias escape without fighting them. "
The siege of Raqqa had lasted for a long time, several months, with high human losses. Kurdish-Arab militaries were therefore exhausted and most likely that was why they preferred to let the jihadists escape the ISS to avoid further losses between their files. "Probably everything has happened with the US consensus - continued Guide - especially because after the fall of the capital of the Islamic State, the anti-Is coalition had to focus on another very important area, that is to the east of Syria, border with Iraq, the area of Deir ez-Zor and Al Bukamal, where there are still oil fields under the control of the IS. And the Syrian regime is strongly interested in regaining those strategic areas. So it is clear that the coalition forces are not only engaged in the defeat of the IS, but are also concerned with the control of the communication routes between Iraq and Syria, which are important trade routes for the support of their forces in the north of Syria and to prevent Iranian expansion in the area. In essence, the control of that area by the forces of the Syrian regime and its allied Iranian militias would allow Iran to support both its forces within Syria and those in southern Lebanon. "
Meanwhile, the Turkish army is committed to "cleansing" the entire area of northern Syria and that of northern Iraq bordering Turkey from the presence of the PKK Kurds. Before the terrible earthquake that struck the Suleymania region in northern Iraq on the border with Iran a few days ago, Ankara had proposed to Tehran to carry out a joint operation in the Kandil mountain area to destroy all bases of the PKK and clean up the whole area from the presence of the armed party. This is what would have emerged substantially from the recent high-level talks between Ankara and Tehran. "A similar operation is certainly in preparation, but it is not known when and how it will take place", says Professor Guida. Turkish President Erdogan has on several occasions referred to this probable operation, saying: "We could suddenly arrive overnight," as a famous Turkish folk song goes. “These things won't happen to the sound of a drum. One night we will enter Kandil, suddenly, ”Erdogan said.
"In fact - explains Guide - Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, was even more explicit. Last Wednesday, during a press conference, it announced that Turkey intends to clean up a large 25 kilometer area within the Iraqi territory across the border from the Pkk presence. Paradoxically, both the referendum on independence of the autonomous region of Kurdistan and the recent earthquake favor this operation. Certainly, the earthquake was a dramatic event and the fact that Turkey was the first to mobilize promptly for relief rescuing people buried from rubble and sending more than 70 Tir of aid helped to improve the image of this country in the eyes of public opinion in Iraq in general, but especially among the people of Iraqi Kurdistan. "
On the other hand, the professor adds, "Ankara's approach to Tehran for the common opposition to the Kurdistan referendum has made it possible to reach an agreement with Pkk, both because Pkk's main base lies right at the Iranian border, and this helps the operation in Kandil, both because Iranians have an interest in the Sinjar area, in the northwest of Iraq on the border with Syria, where there is another important base for Pkk. So they could coordinate for the operation announced by Soylu also with the Iraqi central government on which Tehran has influence. And now, the Iraqi government would have an interest in supporting this operation because the Pkk, after the referendum and after the military operations in Baghdad for the conquest of the controversial areas of Kirkuk, would be mobilizing for military action against it. What, this, that did not happen for many years. So now, all these three major actors in the area would be interested in collaborating with Pkk. And that until recently, it would not have been possible. "
Turkey's interest in Sinjar has long been known for the presence of a PKK base. Officially, Iran has no religious or ethnic ties with Sinjar, a Turkmen and Sunni area, but has strategic interests. In 1991, during the first Gulf War, Iraq under Saddam Hussein launched Scud ballistic missiles into Israel from Mount Sinjar. The question is therefore whether Iran's interest in the Sinjar mountains is the same as that of Saddam Hussein. Strategically and politically, Iran has always sought an access road to the Mediterranean, also to export oil and gas. In particular, Tehran could be interested in a communication line that goes from Suleymaniye-Kirkuk-Sinjar (all in Iraq), passing through Rojava (North Syria) Deir ez-Zor, Damascus and Lebanon; this line should be its strategic corridor, the base of the so-called Shiite crescent.
And Sinjar, a region between Iraq and Syria, is a vital connection point for Iran that would also allow to sever ties between the Kurds, breaking the territorial continuity of the Kurdish region. Iranian control of Sinjar is seen as a threat by some, such as Israel, and Tehran is building an alliance as a deterrent force against its enemies. On the other hand, Turkey also does not want Sinjar to become a new Kandil, a stronghold of the PKK; it will never allow the establishment of a Kurdish corridor that would run from Iraq along its borders to the west towards the Mediterranean.
And therefore Iran and Turkey, which had deep divergences in the civil war in Syria, are now on the same front as regards the Kurdish question. But this is a tactical convergence, because the two regional powers have conflicting interests and religious views. An Iran on the border with Turkey would represent a threat to Ankara and therefore there is a risk that in Sinjar they clash, if not militarily, politically. Whoever controls Sinjar - Turkey, Iran or the PKK - will have an indisputable advantage in Iraq and Syria.