It is unacceptable that criminal organizations contribute to increasing the GDP
It is mostly managed by mafia organizations and has an annual turnover estimated at 40 billion euros, equal to over 2 percent of our GDP (Sauro Mocetti and Lucia Rizzica, "Organized crime in Italy", Bank of Italy, Issues of Economics and Finance No. 661, December 2021, p. 5). We are talking about the criminal economy attributable to Mafia Spa (with this term, in this note we "include" the illegal activities attributable to Cosa Nostra, Ndrangheta, Camorra, Sacra Corona Unita, Nigerian Mafia, criminal organizations from Eastern Europe, etc.) which, purely statistically, has a "turnover" in Italy lower only than the turnover of GSE (Gestore dei Servizi Energetici), ENI and ENEL (according to Mediobanca, GSE's 2021 turnover was 54,4 billion, ENI's 76,5 billion and ENEL's 84,1 billion. The companies just mentioned occupy the first three positions in the national ranking of the main industrial companies and services by turnover volume). The data relating to criminal economic activities are certainly underestimated, as we are unable to estimate the proceeds attributable to the infiltration of these criminal organizations into the legal economy. To say it is theResearch office of the CGIA.
No to the illegal economy inside the GDP
If in words we are all against the mafias, in concrete actions this is not always the case. In fact, it is at least "embarrassing" that since 2014, the European Union, with a specific legislative provision (EU Regulation No. 549/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013) allows all member countries to count certain illegal economic activities in their GDP: such as prostitution, drug trafficking and cigarette smuggling (being considered economic activities based on consensual transactions, where supply and demand meet without constraints, the EU believes that they must be part of Europe's economic well-being. Also because in some countries of the Union, some of these activities are legal). "Thanks" to this opportunity, in 2020 (latest data available) we "inflated" our national wealth by 17,4 billion euros - almost a point of GDP - (Istat, "The 2020 crisis also affects the unobserved economy: it collapses by 14,1% and the incidence drops to 10,5% of GDP", 14 October 2022. Of these 17,4 billion euros of added value , 600 million euros are attributable to cigarette smuggling, 3,5 billion to prostitution and 13,3 billion to drug trafficking). An ethically unacceptable decision: on the one hand the State fights and opposes the mafias, on the other it recognizes an active role of "bearers of economic well-being" to these criminal organizations. Basically it is as if on a statistical level we admit that even a part of the illegal economy attributable to Mafia Spa is "good and acceptable"; in short, a "positive" component of our national wealth ("Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry into the phenomenon of the mafias and other criminal associations, including foreign ones", Final Report, Approved by the Commission in the session of 7 February 2018, page. 26).
Public spending and corruption fertile ground for Mafia Spa
As demonstrated by the studies cited above, at the territorial level the most widespread presence of criminal economic organizations is recorded in the South, even if by now a lot of equally disturbing evidence indicates the presence of these illegal realities in the more economically advanced areas of the Centre-North. The specialized literature highlights that, historically, the territories where the local economy is strongly conditioned by public spending and the level of corruption in the public administration is very high are more vulnerable to the corruptive power of the mafias. Inductively, it is possible to recognize a geographical area more at risk than another, also from the finding of a high presence of spy crimes. In territories where the number of complaints to the judicial authority for extortion/racketeering, usury, counterfeiting, undeclared work, illegal management of the waste cycle, clandestine betting, gambling, etc. is very high, the probability that there is a deep-rooted and widespread presence of one or more mafia-type criminal organizations is very high.
A large part of the South, Rome, Latina, Genoa, Imperia and Ravenna are the areas most at risk
According to the Bank of Italy (Sauro Mocetti and Lucia Rizzica, "Organized crime in Italy", Bank of Italy, Issues of Economics and Finance No. 661, December 2021, p. 10) the territorial penetration of Mafia Spa does not concern only the South; unfortunately they have an index of mafia presence (this index is calculated by cross-referencing data referring to: mafia-type homicides, crimes committed by mafia-type associations, Municipalities dissolved by the mafia, companies confiscated from the mafia, voluntary homicides, damage following fires, attacks, extortion, exploitation of prostitution, production and drug trafficking, smuggling, money laundering. From a survey carried out on a sample of 3.500 companies, on the other hand, the victimization index, the perception of "unusual" acquisitions, the perception of "anomalous" loans and the perception of violence and extortion were "calculated".) also very worrying reality of the Centre-North, especially the provinces of Rome, Latina, Genoa, Imperia and Ravenna. The provinces of Turin, Novara, Verbano-Cusio-Ossola, Varese, Milan, Lodi, Brescia, Savona, La Spezia, Bologna, Ferrara, Rimini are also less affected than the previous ones, but still with serious problems. , Pistoia, Prato, Florence, Livorno, Arezzo, Viterbo, Ancona and Macerata. Less affected by this sad phenomenon, on the other hand, would be the provinces of Triveneto (with slight signs of a countertrend in Venice, Padua, Trento and, in particular, Trieste). Valle d'Aosta and Umbria also present a very low level of risk. Finally, in the South, according to the researchers of via Nazionale, the only areas completely "immune" from the presence of the mafia phenomenon would be the provinces of Matera, Chieti, Campobasso and the Sardinian realities of Olbia-Tempio, Sassari and Oristano. To see the provincial geography of the phenomenon, open the Bank of Italy web page at the following link: p. 11 (Figure 2: map of mafia presence).
In addition to the illicit economy, there is also the undeclared economy in the GDP
In addition to the 17,4 billion euros "produced" by illegal activities (through drug trafficking, cigarette smuggling and prostitution), our national GDP "absorbs" another 157 billion euros: of which 79,7 are "hidden" from the sub-declaration, 62,4 billion from irregular work and 15,2 billion from the Other item (that is, tips, undeclared rent, etc.). The total of 174,4 billion euros (17,4 plus 157), make up the so-called unobserved economy which is entirely counted in our national GDP. Although it is not possible to quantify its size, it is clear that an important part of this stock (157 billion) is also attributable to mafia-type criminal organizations, demonstrating that the 40 billion turnover referred to at the beginning of this document charged at Mafia Spa they are, unfortunately, underestimated.