(by Massimiliano D'Elia) While the Transatlantic Alliance is preparing for its 70th anniversary in April 2019, the Organization born to guarantee lasting world peace is losing its specific weight, under the combined weight of Trump, the division of strategic interests in the countries of the Southeast and due to the bivalent politics of Turkey.
After two decades of out-of-area operations, from the Balkans to Afghanistan, NATO has returned to its original task: deterrence and territorial defense. After the Russian annexation of Crimea and the start of Moscow's interference in eastern Ukraine in 2014, Article "5" resumes its priority position in the Alliance's main tasks list. Russia's assertive foreign policy, its military intervention in Syria, its chemical weapons attack on the Skripals in the UK, its intelligence service actions - notably the cyber attack on the OPCW in The Hague - have stressed the need for a credible Alliance, adapted to the security needs of the 21st century.
Trump and America first
Since Donald Trump became a tenant of the White House, a black cloud has swept over the transatlantic relationship. With his "America First" campaign, President Trump is challenging Europe, announcing the downsizing of its presence in Europe, the withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and the abandonment of the nuclear deal with Iran.
The security and defense relations between the United States and Europe have entered a new phase. Doubts have been raised by the Trump administration about the US commitment to European security, despite repeated pro-NATO statements by the US Vice President, the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of State.
Trump is not questioning the existence of the Alliance, but he has transformed the issue of burden-sharing as a key tool for weighing and measuring future US investments in European security.
In his two sentences addressed to former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis Trump it was clear: "You can have your NATO", "But you become the mere rent collector". "European countries are solely responsible for having to achieve the goal of spending 2% of GDP in the defense sector, as agreed at the NATO summit in 2014".
Despite Trump's rhetoric, there are more American troops in Europe today than during the end of the Obama administration.
Just take a look at the budget to strengthen military capabilities under the European Deterrence Initiative which nearly doubled from $ 3,4 billion (2017) to $ 6,5 billion (2019).
In addition to the permanently stationed forces, the United States continuously revolves personnel in the Armored Brigade and Air Combat Brigade.
American stocks for the two brigades are again replenishing depots in Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany. American troops are participating in all NATO exercises.
But never before has an American president been so critical of major European partners like Germany. And never before have European supporters of NATO questioned the United States' commitment to European security.
According to a 2018 poll, 56% of Germans thought that relations between Germany and the United States were in bad shape and only 11% had faith in the president of the United States - in contrast to 86% in the last year of the mandate of the United States. president Obama.
There is, therefore, a strong contrast between the tweets of the White House and the real measures taken by the United States. In this regard, the US Secretary of Defense has also sensitized the European allies to increase their share of defense costs. Now a new scenario could be opened after the resignation of Jim Mattis - the greatest supporter of US defense cooperation in NATO - although for the moment, there are no tangible signs that suggest the drastic decrease of the American presence in Europe.
French President Macron's relationship with Trump is also characterized by ups and downs. Macron and Merkel perhaps first of all are contextualizing the emergency and pushing to lay the foundations for a common European defense.
But whatever happens, Washington's pressure on Europe to invest more in defense will not subside as the United States has other challenges to face due to the changing global order and China's resourcefulness.
The American rhetoric is however dictated by the new strategy in the Pacific and East Asia which will require an ever greater US military effort. For Europe, therefore, there will be no choice but to increase its investments in defense, bringing it to 2 per cent of GDP, as subscribed in 2014.
Different problems between Eastern and Southern European countries
A lack of unity also characterizes relations between European NATO members themselves. Eastern European allies - the Baltic states and Poland - see Russia as the greatest threat. They strongly support the need to focus investments on territorial defense capabilities.
Southern NATO members, on the other hand, are primarily concerned about the effects of instability and conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, such as migration, terrorism and international organized crime.
Their security mentality is therefore different, less geared towards strengthening heavy armed forces and more towards expanding naval, coast guard and border protection capabilities.
Italy and Spain have publicly declared that they will not be able to reach the target immediately, while Poland and the Baltic states are already spending or will soon spend 2% of their GDP on defense.
The challenges from the east will continue to dominate NATO's efforts to strengthen its deterrence and its defensive attitude.
Indeed, NATO is struggling with the question of how to better balance the dominant security interests of its Eastern and Southern European members. The NATO “Sea Guardian” operation in the Mediterranean is proof of this. The EU naval force could be strengthened in the EUNAVFOR MED - Op.Sophia mission, which started in 2015.
It will therefore remain difficult for the Alliance to play an important role in addressing the main security concerns of its southern member states as the main actors in border protection and in the fight against terrorism are civilian institutions such as police, police customs and coast guard.
Turkey
Another matter for Turkey. A once loyal member of NATO, guarding the Alliance's southeastern flank for a long time, has now turned into a sensitive problem for the Alliance. Under Erdogan's presidency, Turkey has become a semi-autocratic state, moving away from the more conservative and religious orientation.
To prevent further expansion of the Kurdish-controlled Syrian part, Ankara intervened militarily and now occupies several parts of its southern border close to Syria. Establishing relations with Iran and Russia has alarmed NATO allies. A series of incidents marked the growing tensions between Ankara and Washington. Turkey's announcement in December 2017 that it intends to purchase Russian S-400 air defense missiles provoked US reaction by imposing new sanctions.
For this reason the delivery of 100 F-35 fighters to Turkey has been delayed and probably compromised. The US-Turkey relationship has reached an all-time low after President Trump's announcement last December that he plans to withdraw US troops from Syria in 2019. The announcement was welcomed by Erdogan as without American support Syrian-Kurdish YPG fighters, labeled as "terrorists" by Ankara, would become more vulnerable to potential Turkish military action. A reaction, the one feared by Turkey, strongly advised against by the Trump administration.
Meanwhile, several European countries are recording Ankara's influence on Turkish minorities within their borders. Germany and the Netherlands have suffered several incidents, particularly in view of the Turkish presidential elections in June 2018. As for NATO, however, Turkey is showing itself to be bivalent. On the one hand, the country continues to regard the Alliance as indispensable for its security: Turkey contributes to various NATO operations in the Middle East and Kosovo; on the other hand, President Erdogan has openly questioned NATO membership where US sanctions will not be lifted.
The Turkish purges are also agitating NATO leaders. Turkish soldiers serving in senior positions in the NATO chain of command, prior to the 2016 coup, were ordered to return to Turkey and many of them ended up in court accused of supporting the coup.
Erdogan uses the term "atlantists" for these former NATO officers. In other words, Atlanticism has a negative connotation in Turkey. A 2017 poll found that the Turkish population views the United States as the most serious threat to the country's security, even more than Russia and China. There is also a serious danger that the Turkish military will become less NATO-oriented and more pro-Russian. With his party (the APK) gaining an increasing hold on many state institutions and generating considerable support among the population, the odds are in the further Erdoganisation of Turkey, in a pro-Russian function.
Europe must, therefore, take a real step forward and try to rely more on NATO to take care of regional interests from both the Eastern and the Southern dangers. The idea of a Common European Defense could be the beginning of a new strategic phase to be able to compete globally with the new competitors, Russia, China, India etc., especially in light of the fact that the United States has lost, over time, its sphere of influence, most depleted today by foreign policy " seesaw "by Trump.