by Andrea Pinto
Russia continues its special military operation in Ukraine by constantly bombing the occupied territories, demonstrating the stability of its arsenals, apparently inexhaustible and capable of replenishing themselves without interruption. Even if the population, in real life, begins to suffer from the war effort, according to Kremlin propaganda, the objectives remain unchanged for 2024 as well.
Russia invaded Ukraine after having deployed approximately two hundred thousand troops on its western borders in the months preceding the invasion. No one imagined among the sherpa of the European chancelleries and institutions within the NATO, Ue ed UN is Vladimir Putin could go this far, bring the war to the heart of Europe.
For the modern day tsar and his assertive entourage it was not an invasion against a sovereign state but only a military operation to re-establish "order" in one's own region, which had become too pro-Western and Nazified: Putin's historical conviction, given by the splendor of the Russian empire of Peter the Great, considers Ukraine an integral part of the Federation, on a par with Crimea and other nations once orbiting the former Soviet Union.
The invasion of Ukraine, covertly supported by this historical thesis, is Putin's response to the alleged encirclement of the West at the hands of NATO: "No fence around Russia, we fight like in the times of Peter the Great."
In light of the data open source, only a madman would think of invading Ukraine and indirectly fighting the West with a non-predominant conventional military force even if it holds the world record in the field of nuclear weapons: 5889 Russian warheads compared to 5646 American ones (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute – Sipri – January 2023). The numbers include strategic and tactical nuclear warheads and those to be destroyed, in compliance with the bilateral treaty NewSTART, currently unilaterally suspended by Russia.
Russian GDP and defense funds
But how do you fight an enemy, the West, which spends twenty-five times more on armaments? Russia with a GDP of $2241 billion, engaged in Defense 86,4 billion dollars (year 2022). According to Sipri data, again with reference to the year 2022, North America spends 877 billion dollars, equal to 3,7% of its GDP, but above all equal to 39% of its entire military spending of all the world's nations committing a total of 2240 billion dollars. To understand the extent of the commitment, the USA spends three times more than China which still ranks as the second country in the world in terms of defense funds.
During 2024, Russia, according to the first data emerging from forecast documents, intends to continue increasing military spending, bringing it to 6% of its GDP. The budget allocated to Defense would thus jump from 86,4 billion dollars per year to 112 billion which are apparently insufficient when compared to the almost 900 billion dollars committed by the Americans.
In this regard, however, a non-secondary consideration must be made: the raw materials and labor come from within the Federation where, notoriously, the cost of living is very low compared to modern economies (110th place worldwide).
As an indicator, the value of the average salary in Moscow is eloquent, which is around 900 euros per month (without any substantial difference between workers, miners and engineers). They are not many, but still more than the national average which, according to the numbers provided by the federal statistics office in Moscow, stands on average at 450 euros per month. (ref. year 2020).
Il International Monetary Fund has recently certified the resilience of the Russian Federation's economy to Western sanctions. Also supporting the health of Moscow's economy World Economic Outlook of last July which revised upwards the Russian GDP estimates for 2023, growth should be 1,5% instead of the 0,7% forecast last April, an increase of 0,8%. The IMF forecasts for 2024 remain unchanged, at +1,3%.
The constant increase in Russian GDP, according to international observers, is probably due to oil and gas export revenues, which remained unchanged even after the war and sanctions.
Russia sells gas and oil despite sanctions
An investigation by the German newspaper The World revealed the strategy adopted by Moscow to continue selling its oil, especially to the Asian market, using foreign shipping companies that load crude from Russian ports on the Black Sea. Every month the country exports around 60 million barrels of crude oil, a third of the total, through the port of Novorossiysk.
However, dangers from Ukrainian incursions into the Black Sea could accelerate Russia's efforts to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) to transport crude oil to international markets, especially in Asia. There are dozens of oil tankers that, in recent months, have crossed the Arctic route to reach China and India.
Transactions involving Russia are, however, only permitted if they are in line with the maximum price limit per barrel established by the G7 countries, the EU and Australia. To get around this constraint, again according to Die Welt, Moscow is said to have purchased old oil tankers flying Western flags to transport its raw materials. These ships avoid paying the required insurance and turn off the radio system at sea (transponders) to travel anonymously and thus hide their routes. The EU is trying to crack down on the phenomenon by banning ships from calling at European ports. This is the intention of the eleventh sanctions package, adopted last June.
To continue to support the war effort, a third of the Russian economy, according to Western intelligence, was totally converted to meet the needs of the front. The production of the factories involved was therefore converted from civilian to military, imposing exhausting shifts on workers, seven days a week.
With regard to the valuable components like microchips, Moscow still manages to obtain supplies in Asia but also in the West via third countries. For rockets and artillery shells an agreement was signed with the North Korea which has depots full of ammunition which, even if dated, can still favor the Kremlin's strategy in pursuing the tactical objective of the persistence of bombings in Ukraine.
Moscow gives up on innovation in the military field
Some international newspapers then revealed the Kremlin's new approach to the war effort: all resources, in terms of money and men, will have to be concentrated only on the weapons widely tested during the conflict, avoiding investing, in the medium term, on innovation . Moscow wants to concentrate, at this stage of the war, only on systems with proven reliability such as the KH-55 cruise missiles, dating back to the early XNUMXs, only updating the navigation equipment to escape Ukrainian anti-aircraft fire.
Therefore, the construction of the tested ones continues tank T90 and the most recent T72. The revision and updating of armaments considered obsolete and stacked in large numbers in depots such as tanks has also begun T62 and T55.
Helicopter production has also doubled Kamov KA52 - “Alligator”, while in the drone sector the Russians produce hundreds of them at home Shahed Iranians and the fearsome Lancet.
Insights
New START Treaty
New START was signed in Prague in 2010 and came into force the following year. The treaty is intended as a renewal and/or continuation of the 1991 START I Treaty, which expired in 2009, but further reduces the limits set by the latter.
New START limits to 1.550 nuclear warheads that each of the two countries can deploy and also sets quantitative limits on the number of nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles, bombers and launchers deployed. The New START provides a inspection mechanism (18 short-term inspections per year) and of mutual notifications, as well as regular meetings to discuss the implementation of the treaty. The START I (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) was, instead, a bilateral treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union on the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive weapons. The treaty was signed on July 31, 1991 and entered into force on December 5, 1994. The treaty prohibited signatories from deploying more than 6 nuclear warheads and a total of 1.600 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and bombers.
Kamov Ka-52 “Alligator” helicopters
Helicopters Kamov Ka-52 “Alligator” they proved to be very reliable in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Among attack helicopters, the Ka-52 is one of the most used due to its combat effectiveness. In a plane crash on June 19, 2023, despite suffering severe damage to the tail assembly and cockpit section, the aircraft still managed to safely return to base and land. The attack helicopter Kamov Ka-52 “Alligator” It is a two-seater with a coaxial main rotor. The first flight was on June 25, 1997. It entered service with the Russian Air Force. It is equipped with 2 Klimov TV3-117VK turbines (with power 1600 kW each). Armaments include a 2 mm Shipunov 42A30 cannon; air-to-air, air-to-ground, anti-tank and rocket missiles.
Lancet Drone
The drone Lancet it is invisible to radar, its electric motor does not make loud sounds, and the mass of the combat unit is often sufficient to damage even heavy equipment. During the year and a half of war, the Russians used about 850 Lancet drones. Not all of them achieved their goals, but the Ukrainian military often calls these drones one of the main problems at the front. In July, it was estimated that Russia only had 50 Lancets left, but these drones are by no means running out. Dozens of kamikaze UAVs (Unmanned aerial vehicles) are still flying, because the Russians continue to produce them.
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