by Francesco Matera
Russia continues its special military operation in Ukraine by constantly bombing the occupied territories, demonstrating the stability of its arsenals, apparently inexhaustible and capable of replenishing themselves without interruption. Even if the population, in real life, begins to suffer from the war effort, according to Kremlin propaganda, the objectives remain unchanged for 2024 as well.
In light of the data open source, only a madman would think of invading Ukraine and indirectly fighting the West with a non-predominant conventional military force even if it holds the world record in the field of nuclear weapons: 5889 Russian warheads compared to 5646 American ones (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute – Sipri – January 2023). The numbers include strategic and tactical nuclear warheads and those to be destroyed, in compliance with the bilateral treaty NewSTART, currently unilaterally suspended by Russia.
The Lithuanian intelligence report
The annual Lithuanian Intelligence report, presented yesterday in Vilnius, provides some useful elements for reflection on Russian resilience in the war in Ukraine, answering the questions that Western soldiers and diplomats have been asking for a long time, precisely on the persistence of Russian bombings.
The report is clear: “Russia has sufficient financial, human, material and technical resources to continue the war in Ukraine at a similar intensity to the current one for at least another two years.".
The document highlights that Russia is diverting enormous resources towards the war in Ukraine and is preparing for a long-term confrontation with the Atlantic Alliance. The document also highlights that the presidential elections scheduled for March 17 could further strengthen Vladimir Putin, laying the foundations for further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. Particular attention is paid, in the document, to the restructuring of the armed forces and the strengthening of military facilities in the Kaliningrad exclave. The report also notes that Belarus is developing its capabilities to deploy Russian-controlled nuclear weapons on its territory: “The deployment of non-strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus will only deepen ties between the two countries and encourage Moscow to maintain control over Minsk at all costs".
Russian GDP and defense funds
But how do you fight an enemy, the West, which spends twenty-five times more on armaments? Russia with a GDP of $2241 billion, engaged in Defense 86,4 billion dollars (year 2022). According to Sipri data, again with reference to the year 2022, North America spends 877 billion dollars, equal to 3,7% of its GDP, but above all equal to 39% of its entire military spending of all the world's nations committing a total of 2240 billion dollars. To understand the extent of the commitment, the USA spends three times more than China which still ranks as the second country in the world in terms of defense funds.
During 2024, Russia intends to continue increasing military spending to 6% of its GDP. The budget allocated to Defense would thus jump from 86,4 billion dollars per year to 112 billion which are apparently insufficient when compared to the almost 900 billion dollars committed by the Americans.
In this regard, however, a non-secondary consideration must be made: the raw materials and labor come mainly from within the Federation where, notoriously, the cost of living is very low compared to modern economies (110th place worldwide).
As an indicator, the value of the average salary in Moscow is eloquent, which is around 900 euros per month (without any substantial difference between workers, miners and engineers). They are not many, but still more than the national average which, according to the numbers provided by the Federal Statistics Office in Moscow, stands on average at 450 euros per month.
Il International Monetary Fund it then certified the resilience of the Russian Federation's economy to Western sanctions. Also supporting the health of Moscow's economy World Economic Outlook of last July which sees GDP growth at +2024% in 1,3.
The constant increase in Russian GDP, according to international observers, is mainly due to oil and gas export revenues, which remained unchanged even after the war and sanctions.
Russia sells gas and oil despite sanctions
An investigation by the German newspaper The Worldmonths ago, he revealed the strategy adopted by Moscow to continue selling its oil, especially to the Asian market, using foreign shipping companies that load crude oil from Russian ports on the Black Sea. Every month the country exports around 60 million barrels of crude oil, a third of the total, through the port of Novorossiysk.
However, dangers from Ukrainian incursions into the Black Sea could accelerate Russia's efforts to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) to transport crude oil to international markets, especially in Asia. There are dozens of oil tankers that, in recent months, have crossed the Arctic route to reach China and India.
Transactions involving Russia are, however, only permitted if they are in line with the maximum price limit per barrel established by the G7 countries, the EU and Australia. To get around this constraint, again according to Die Welt, Moscow is said to have purchased old oil tankers flying Western flags to transport its raw materials. These ships avoid paying the required insurance and turn off the radio system at sea (transponders) to travel anonymously and thus hide their routes. The EU is trying to crack down on the phenomenon by banning ships from calling at European ports. The measure is included in the eleventh sanctions package.
To continue to support the war effort, a third of the Russian economy, according to Western intelligence, was totally converted to meet the needs of the front. The production of the factories involved was therefore converted from civilian to military, imposing exhausting shifts on workers, seven days a week.
With regard to the valuable components like microchips, Moscow still manages to obtain supplies in Asia but also in the West via third countries. For rockets and artillery shells an agreement was signed with the North Korea which has depots full of ammunition which, even if dated, can still favor the Kremlin's strategy in pursuing the tactical objective of the persistence of bombings in Ukraine.
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