The purchase of Indian and Chinese oil has offset most of the decline in Russian exports to Europe, thus raising questions about the impact of sanctions on Moscow which have instead led to a skyrocketing energy bills for European consumers. A Financial Times analysis of available data from Chinese and Indian customs statistics shows that countries imported one million more tons of oil from Russia in the second quarter of 2022 than in the first quarter.
Payments for Russian oil from countries increased by $ 9 billion. The greatest growth in volumes came fromIndia, where Russian oil imports jumped from 0,66 million tons in the first quarter to 8,42 million tons in the second.
The most populous countries in the world continue to buy Russian oil and other raw materials such as coal and fertilizers. China, which was already a major buyer of Russian crude oil before the war, bought 2 million barrels a day in May, an increase of 0,2-0,4 million a day compared to January and February.
Evidence of increased shipments to India and China has come since the United States is trying to persuade Russian oil importers, including New Delhi, to join the G7 to support the price cap to Moscow oil.
The "key factor" of trade with India is its neutrality with respect to the war in Ukraine. It is not a case that Russia is also India's largest arms supplier. Although information on the Indian oil import market is unclear, analysts think New Delhi is taking advantage of discounts from Russia.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russian oil has been trading at discounts of up to $ 30 per barrel compared to the price of Brent crude, the international benchmark. Nonetheless, Russian revenues are higher than those of 2021 because global prices have risen dramatically, bringing oil exchanges, for most of the year, above 100 dollars a barrel.
Also the China, according to customs data, it is buying Russian oil below market prices. The unit value of imports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Oman, China's other major sources of crude oil, rose to $ 800 per ton in the second quarter, while import costs from Russia they remained at $ 700 per ton.
India's oil imports from Russia averaged $ 790 per ton in the first quarter, but dropped to $ 740 per ton in the second.
The profits of tatneft, one of the largest Russian oil producers, increased by 52% in the first half of 2022. During theEastern Economic Forum a Vladimir Putin he said Russia would have no problem selling its energy to non-Western buyers. “As for our resources", Putin said, “The demand is so great on world markets that we have no problem selling them". Putin said Moscow would withdraw from energy contracts and cut off gas and oil supplies if a cap on the price of Russian oil, proposed by the G7, was imposed, warning that theWest it would be over "frozen", Adding:"We will not supply gas, oil, coal, fuel oil: we will not supply anything ”.
The sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia constitute "a threat to the whole world", the Russian president then reiterated. "The pandemic has been replaced by new global challenges that pose a challenge to the whole world. I refer to the frenzy of Western sanctions, to the aggressive attempts to impose a model of behavior on other countries, depriving them of sovereignty and subjugating them to its will ", said the head of the Kremlin.
Putin then added that "Russia has not lost and is not losing anything due to the Special Operation, but rather has strengthened its sovereignty". The Russian leader said he was certain that "the global economy is going through a difficult period, but the logic of cooperation will surely win". Russia did not initiate combat actions in Ukraine, but "Is trying to put an end to them, because they have been continuing since 2014", stigmatized the Russian president.
What is certain is that the redirection of gas supplies to other markets (India and China ed) is more difficult due to the lack of pipeline infrastructure, even if Russia has resumed work on the "Power of Siberian -2 " which will bring the gas from the fields of the Siberia western to the China passing through the Mongolia. The work will begin in 2024 to go into operation in 2030.