(by Massimiliano D'Elia) While Turkey has approved for a year the sending of its troops to Tripoli on January 7, the European mission will go to Tripoli and Benghazi, to try to make the two parties, Haftar and al Serraj, dialogue. to strike a lasting political agreement. Our foreign representatives have not understood that they must now dialogue with Turkey and Russia, given their direct interference on the ground: Haftar and al Serraj have now become puppets in their hands.
The High Representative for European Foreign Affairs Joseph Borrel he will lead the EU mission (Italy, France, Germany and England) which will try to convince Fayez al Serraj and Khalifa Haftar to put an end to the conflict (more a dream than a plausible possibility). All this in anticipation of the Berlin conference, scheduled for January 14th, which has not yet been confirmed. The day after the EU mission in Istanbul, Recep Tayyip Erdogan who supports the government of Tripoli, and Vladimir Putin who supports General Haftar (with the mercenaries of the Wagner group) will meet. The meeting was already scheduled to inaugurate the TurkStream gas pipeline which is expected to transport Russian gas to Europe via Turkey. At the center of the meeting also the two dossiers, the Syrian and the Libyan one. They will probably decide there how to divide Libya and then impose their energy policies on Europe which just yesterday celebrated the EastMed gas pipeline that will transport the resources from Israel directly to Cyprus, passing through Greece, in Italy they will arrive in Puglia.
The United States has so far shown a marked lack of interest in the Libyan question (they are grappling with a very tough confrontation in Iraq with the affiliates of the Iranian Republic). Just yesterday Donald Trump telephoned Erdogan to ask him to avoid escalating the conflict, as military intervention would make the matter even more complicated.
It is no coincidence that yesterday the spokesman for the Government of National Agreement (Gna), of Tripoli, Mustafa al Mujahie, communicated the withdrawal of the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner company from the suburbs of Tripoli, without being able to provide the real reasons for this disengagement. Probably Trump's invitation has had its effects given that Putin is indebted to the US for the help received on the occasion of an attempted terrorist attack by Isis in Russia.
The plan to share Libya
Francesco Semprini in La Stampa explains the plan of Libya and Russia to divide up the North African country. The entry of Turkish soldiers into Libya will give a greater "international" stamp. Although Moscow has always maintained relations with Tripoli, on the ground it has in fact supported the strong man of Cyrenaica, most recently by sending mercenaries from Wagner, the company of Yevgheni Prigozhin, who is very loyal to Vladimir Putin. Their arrival changed the equilibrium in the field, giving greater incisiveness to the ground actions of Haftar's forces who already enjoyed an air superiority compared to those of Sarraj thanks to the contribution of Emirati fighters and drones. Russia aims to expand its area of influence on the southern shore of the Mediterranean, all in the context of that strategic vision with which Vladimir Putin wants to make his country a superpower and privileged interlocutor of the enlarged region of the Middle East and Africa. northern. Scheme similar to that of Erdogan whose intervention in Libya will lead to decisive mutations on the pitch and changes in balance, given that Turkey is notoriously difficult to abandon the game when it enters a game, especially because it is animated by that desire to return to "Ottoman greatness" which sees it as the protagonist in Syria and Somalia. The Turkish intervention will be concentrated in the western areas of the country but with a focus on the Turkish-speaking minority of Misrata functional to justify its intervention to "protect the brothers". But even more functional to the project of creating a base for the expansion of "political Islam" in Libya. The dynamics underway show that Moscow and Ankara could decide at the table a "draw" for the partition of the country, with Cyrenaica and Fezzan gravitating in the orbit of Russia, Egypt, the Emirates and France (always able to unmark and reinsert themselves in the dossiers of interest, in this case for Total towards the fields in the east). And Tripolitania under the aegis of Ankara with Misurata as a point of reference for the new central Turkish order.
Italy? Not received - UN, absent and EU, irrelevant.