In a joint note, the majority parties announce the economic maneuver for the year 2019, "the measures will be financed with a coverage of about 20 billion euros, 10 citizenship income, 7 Fornero, 2 flat tax, 1 for extraordinary hiring in police forces Tomorrow the government will present the def in Parliament".
Having avoided the clash with Brussels, since it has been said that in the coming years the deficit / GDP value will drop further, Matteo Salvini, Luigi Di Maio, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and Economy Minister Giovanni Tria, in the press room at Palazzo Chigi listed the measures of the Budget law, leaving however uncertainties on the macroeconomic framework. The update note to the Def, in fact, has not yet been published nor sent to the Chambers. Di Maio claims that it has already been broadcast to Brussels. No table and no GDP figures for now. Only the debt "which will decrease by 4 points in the three-year period" and the deficit, adjusted to 2,1% in 2020 and 1,8% in 2021, but which in 2019 will still remain at 2,4%. In the hypothesis formulated by Tria last Sunday in an interview with Sole 24 Ore, starting from a trend deficit of 1,2%, the debt margins for implementing the measures would remain narrow, between 3 and 5 billion, given that the 0,7 , 12,5% (about 0,2 billion) is committed to avoiding VAT increases and 3,4%, about 0,3 billion, as confirmed by Tria today, will instead go to investments, the spring to give "quality" to maneuver and push for growth. This item, one of the few details provided, will then be worth 2020% of GDP in 5 (about 0,4 billion) and 2021% in 6,8 (15 billion), bringing the additional resources to restart yards to XNUMX billion.
The League is satisfied by stating that there will be 10 billion "green Lega", 7 billion due to the reform of the Fornero law for the early departures of about 400000 people already in April, "without penalties, without stakes, without limits, without income ceiling ". 10000, on the other hand, recruitments in the police forces and the flat tax for VAT numbers, at 15% up to 65 thousand euros, with a second rate of 20% on the additional income that could only arrive in 2020. The mini is also confirmed. -Ires on profits reinvested in the company for hiring and machinery. The M5S, on the other hand, claims credit for income and citizenship pension, having 9 billion available, plus one billion for employment centers. And the new tool should start, according to Di Maio, within the first three months of the year. Deputy Prime Minister M5S also confirms the billion and a half to compensate savers who are victims of bank cracks and announces a cut "to the benefits of banks" which could translate into a reduction of the deductibility of interest expense.
The Minister of Economy and Finance Giovanni Tria is certain to "accelerate the reduction" of the debt from next year, from 130,9% to 126,5% in 2021. As soon as the text of the Def is adopted by Brussels and Parliament, the examination of the figures will begin, leading to the first judgment of the EU at the end of October.
The reaction of Europe
“We will enforce the rules”, says the Commissioner for Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici, who appreciates the “good sign” of a decline in the deficit compared to what was said days ago. However, we need to wait until 2019 to assess the structural deficit. On the other hand, the rhetoric with the Italian government, considered “Eurosceptic and xenophobic”, has not subsided. According to Moscovici's denunciation, there is an attempt to "get rid of EU obligations".
Salvini immediately replied, “he talks nonsense, we are tired of the insults”.
The wait is now for the reaction of the markets, which are already showing positive signs with the spread reaching 283.
The oppositions
“It is a harmful maneuver for the country”, declares from Fi Maria Stella Gelmini. “Still just gossip and promises, no facts”, Ettore Rosato attacks from the Pd.
The clues that transpire suggest that it is a maneuver "to keep the electoral promises", few funds for growth, whose values are fundamental to be able to hope for a gradual increase in GDP and then be able to draw, in the coming years, as mentioned, to new resources to make today's measures structural.