(To Massimiliano D'Elia) International experts and observers are still unable to understand the reasons behind Prigozhin's turnaround. He started from Rostov la march for justice, causing corrupt Russian oligarchs and ministers to flee, just 200 km from Moscow it returned back to Rostov and then disappeared into thin air. His loyalists, according to the agreement brokered with Belarusian president Lukashenko, will not be indicted for treason while the other members of Wagner will be able to sign a contract with the Russian defense ministry to join the ranks of the regular army.
A reversal that in fact would seem to dissolve the private company in the pay of the Kremlin despite the successes in Syria, the Middle East and above all in Africa where it has established fruitful relationships with the warlords in the Sahel. In Africa, thanks to the support provided to local militias, Wagner has taken exclusive management of several mines of gold, cobalt, lithium and rare earths. A way to get rich and support military campaigns in half the world, including Ukraine, where in 16 months of battles Wagner recorded the most significant victories in favor of Russia by sacrificing tens of thousands of mercenaries on the field. The taking of the Bakhmut stronghold is of strategic value.
Wagner's sudden retreat has provoked international reactions that in unison favor the narrative that Putin and his apparatus are now deeply weakened.
I wouldn't be so convinced, given that in any case Putin would be changing the entire chain of Russian military command with names very close to the Wagner brigade. Net of the whole affair Progozhin, by sacrificing his private company and his name, probably helped his brotherly friend Putin to make a clean sweep of a summit, the military one, which had failed to turn the war around by bogging down the Russian pride and honor in the various fronts opened in Ukraine. Not to mention Prigozhin's accusation against Defense Minister Shoigu and Armed Forces Chief Gerasimov of having concocted lies to pressure Putin into launching a special military operation in Ukraine.
The mystery surrounding Prigozhin's action and his sudden about-face stimulate Western intelligence analyzes on the one hand, and on the other hand favor the story of conjectures and intrigues by internal and external Russian propaganda. The reality is that Russian bombing continues in Ukraine without ever ceasing in intensity and constancy, despite recent events.
international reactions
“The unprecedented challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin by Wagnerian fighters has exposed new 'cracks' in the strength of his leadership, which could take weeks or months to heal” the US Secretary of State said yesterday Antony blinken.
Blinken and US congressmen said in a series of televised interviews that Saturday's unrest in Russia weakened Putin enough to favor Ukraine's counteroffensive.
"I don't think we've seen the final act." Blinken told ABC's “This Week” after the action of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his fighters.
Blinken said tensions sparking the action had been building for months and added that the threat of internal unrest could affect Moscow's military capabilities in Ukraine.
"Our focus is only on Ukraine, to make sure it has what it needs to defend itself and to take back the territory that Russia has conquered."Blinken said.
US officials expect to hear more about events unfolding in Russia, including details of the Prigozhin deal brokered by the Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, which resulted in the Wagner fighters returning to their bases.
"At the moment we have no news of any military leader ousted by Putin"Blinken added warning that “we will have to wait for the next few weeks to understand the developments”.
The chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Mike Turner, stated that Putin's future actions in Ukraine could be inhibited by Prigozhin's claim that the motivation for the invasion of Ukraine is based on lies: “Now Putin is having a hard time justifying the deaths to the Russian people: why do we keep sending people to die?”.
Retired US Air Force General Philip Breedlove, former head of US European Command, said the unrest demonstrates the degradation of Russian capabilities: “One of the results, I think, of the last 36 hours, maybe 48 hours, is that the institutions we have long seen as very safe in Russia are slowly crumbling.. The entire military institution, the deterrence of the Russian army, has greatly diminished.".
The uprising of the head of the Wagner group Yevgeny Prigozhin showed “the divisions that exist in the Russian camp, the fragility of both its armed and auxiliary forces“. The French president said so Emmanuel Macron, in an interview with La Provence, adding that he has “followed the events by the hour, in contact with France's main partners". "The situation remains evolving“, he concluded by inviting us to remain “very vigilant”.
La China supports Russia "in maintaining national stability". This is what can be read in a statement by the Foreign Ministry posted on its website regarding the chaos created in Russia over the events connected to the Wangner group over the weekend. “This is internal affairs of Russia", specifies the note, according to which "as a friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic cooperation partner in the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity.
Belarusian leader Aleksandr lukashenko, who yesterday mediated with Prigozhin to stop the advance of Wagner troops into Russia, held telephone talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and former Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev. The Belta agency writes it, according to what Tass reports.
"It's the beginning of the end for Putin, he's in big trouble right now.". Mikhail is convinced of this Kasyanov, a former Russian prime minister under Putin from 2000 to 2004, who has since been torpedoed as a leading critic of the tsar. In an interview with the BBC, Kasyanov claims that after yesterday's challenge “Prigozhin will go to Belarus first, but I think from there he will move to Africa and be somewhere in the jungle or something… Putin can't forgive him for what he did to him”. The Wagner boss, observes the former Russian prime minister, "destroyed Putin's stability and now his very life is a question mark..."
"There is always great consideration on the part of the United States for the Italian government. I remember Blinken's words of great recognition” during the recent visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs to Washington. Foreign Minister Antonio himself said so Tajani during 'In half an hour' answering a question about Joe Biden's consultations with some European leaders on the crisis in Russia, among which Giorgia Meloni was not. “We are a big country – added Tajani -, if Europe is firm in defense of Ukraine it is also thanks to the Italian government. The European system is supported also thanks to our country”.
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