There is no peace for the Pd: once again, the fourth in the last month and a half, the party led by Matteo Renzi records the worst figure of the year, reaching the 24,1%. This is what emerges from the weekly Supermedia developed by YouTrend for Agi. The only consolation, for the dem, is that this decline does not translate into a significant growth of the main competitors. The 5-Star Movement is confirmed in first place among the lists with 27,3%, showing great stability in the consensus. Yet, once again the M5s it fails to go beyond that sort of "glass ceiling" of 28% under which it has been maintained for a good six months. Similar speech for the center, substantially steady compared to last week and even slightly lower than a month ago. Forza Italy has now reached third place (15,4%), two exact points above the Alloy (13,4%), with Brothers of Italy stable al 5,1%. The positive news for the center is made up of the data of coalition (35,8%) which continues to be much higher than that of the other two areas, especially the suffering of the Pd whose data of coalition drops to 27,9%. This advantage of the center-right as a coalition could prove decisive in single-member constituencies where only one vote more than the opponents is enough to win the seat: a substantial advantage at national level could translate into a real “landslide”. Among the reasons for Salvini's recent discontent could be this: having suffered the media return of Berlusconi and the consequent overtaking of Forza Italia will put the League in a subordinate position when it comes to concerting the coalition candidates in the various single-member constituencies. If we vote at the beginning of March, this concertation will have to be completed practically within a month and the time to reverse the trend - barring surprises - does not seem to exist. Meanwhile, the center-right also benefits from the creation of the so-called "fourth leg", the centrist list that collects various micro-acronyms that should bring further water to the coalition mill. For now, to tell the truth, the polls do not assign a value to this newborn mini-assembly; the benefit comes rather from the dissolution of the PA, of which, after Alfano's forfeit, only a few exponents remained to declare their wish to continue the alliance with the Democratic Party (including the Minister of Health, Beatrice Lorenzin). Many others have gone with the center-right in the "fourth leg": this is why Ap fell to 1,3% and this also contributes to the decline in the coalition figure of the Democratic Party. A final mention should be made of Liberi and Equuali, the movement on the left of the Democratic Party that was chosen as leader Pietro Grasso. A month ago the two main founding subjects (Mdp and Si) were estimated together at 5,4%: today I am at 6,8%. This increase could also help explain the decline in Democrats. It should be emphasized, however, that not all institutions agree in reporting an increase in Leu: institutions such as Ipsos, Piepoli and Ixe 'do not register any changes in the most recent surveys, Emg for La7 speaks of a + 0,3% in the last week, statistically not relevant. The next few weeks will tell us whether Liberi e Uguali will be able to take advantage of the crisis of the Democratic Party and the immobility of the M5 or if, on the contrary, it has already reached its maximum potential. Returning to the Democratic Party, also this week it is difficult not to grasp a connection with the events that are occupying the openings of newspapers and television news - as well as the in-depth broadcasts - and that is the statements made by the various Vegas, Ghizzoni, Visco in front of the Parliamentary Commission of bank survey. Renzi and Orfini defend the choice of having wanted to establish this Commission (and to start its work a few months after the end of the legislature) because it is useful to clarify the responsibilities on the events that have affected the solidity of many credit institutions. However, the choice to focus the spotlight on a topic, that of banks, on which the center-left has been suffering a strongly negative association for years remains questionable: in 2006 it was an unfortunate interception of the then DS secretary, Piero Fassino, to dominate the media agenda for many weeks, and a few months before the elections; more recently, in 2013, the crack of Monte dei Paschi di Siena (an institution historically closely linked to politics and in particular to the PCI-PDS-DS-PD) perhaps played a far from marginal role in the disappointing result obtained by Bersani a few weeks after the outbreak of that scandal. Whatever the case, the Democratic Party has been constantly on the defensive for weeks now: it is unable to impose a theme in a proactive key or successfully attack its opponents. And this inevitably reflects on voting intentions.
