After Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, China did not stand by by organizing a massive military exercise close to the island that will see ballistic missile launches, fighter aircraft overflights and tactical movements of warships until Sunday evening. A taste for world public opinion of what Beijing could field if it wanted to take Taiwan.
Yesterday around noon a conventional missile assault began in the waters east of Taiwan.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA), revoking "maritime and airspace control off the east coast ", announced in the afternoon the success of the launch activities that "they hit all targets with precision "Colonel Shi Yi, spokesman for the command of the eastern theater of the Pla created in 2016 to control the island, assured in a statement.
Taiwan claimed that multiple rockets and 11 ballistic missiles were fired Dongfeng class (perhaps Df-15 and 17) "in different lots", condemning the exercises as "irrational actions that undermine regional peace", But also ensuring that the Taipei army"immediately grasped the dynamics of launch, activated the related Defense systems and strengthened combat readiness".
In the evening the tension increased. Il Japan reported that 5 of the nine missiles detected by its systems ended up in its exclusive economic zone, prompting the foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi to ask for the “immediate” stop of the operations. It was the first case of its kind, the defense minister clarified Nobuo Kishi"This - stated in a briefing - it is a serious matter that concerns the national security of our country and of people ”.
The alarming aspect is that four of the five ballistic missiles "it is believed that they flew over the main island of Taiwan ", based on maps and trajectory coordinates released by the ministry: a gamble, later confirmed by Taipei, which could lead to concrete escalation scenarios.
La China, according to his report, he sent over one hundred fighters, bombers and other military aircraft in the maneuvering areas (22 jets crossed the midline of the Strait). While more than 10 destroyers and frigates conducted a joint blockade, alert patrol and reconnaissance, while the Liaoning aircraft carrier has returned to the port of Qingdao since Wednesday.
Pentagon and military analysts are not afraid of an invasion because they believe Beijing is not ready yet. The hypothesis could then be that of a air-naval blockade. In other words, a state of constant pressure on the island, between military maneuvers that would become routine, the economic boycott (hitting the interchange of the island to the outside), the increase in cybertattacks that have already multiplied in recent days on Ufficio presidential and government sites.
The last lever would be the diplomatic one whose contours have emerged today: the whole media system, the diplomatic network and many social media accounts in Mandarin have supported the reading of the US responsible for the crisis and the attempt to change the status quo.
"It is the United States that caused the troubles, the crisis and that continues to increase tensions"thundered the Foreign Minister Wang Yi, commenting harshly on the joint statement by the G7 foreign ministers which on Wednesday asked Beijing to avoid a "aggressive military activity"Due to the risk of a"no escalation needed" and of "do not unilaterally change the status quo by force ".
Wang, in Phnom Penh for the ASEAN ministerial summit, canceled the bilateral agreement with Hayashi who, in turn, met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, condemning the Chinese action. The ASEAN countries have expressed concern about the risk of conflicts. In Beijing, on the other hand, the Foreign Ministry summoned the ambassadors of the G7 countries - including Italy - and of the EU to express their strong disappointment over the communiqué.
The President Xi Jinping he is preparing for the XX Congress of the Communist Party which in the autumn should entrust him with the CCP for another five years during which to find a solution on Taiwan, an "inalienable" part of China.
The Chinese People's Army
The People's Liberation Army deploys over a million ground soldiers, against the 100 defending the island. The new military doctrine has focused its efforts on special forces that can easily make a surprise landing by counting 35 men trained like the American Navy Seals. They are brigades equipped with fast and versatile hovercraft-type vehicles, covered by air forces and airborne artillery.
The artificial islands, writes Corsera, built in the South China Sea have been fortified and would inflict heavy losses on the US Navy coming to the rescue of the Taiwanese. Beijing has developed a hypersonic Dongfeng DF-17 missile known as an "aircraft carrier killer" for its alleged ability to pierce the defenses of aircraft carriers.
Marina. 133 Chinese ships against 26 Taiwanese; 52 submarines versus 2; 86 missile patrol vessels against 44.
Aeronautics. The Chinese Air Force is equipped with 1950 fighter and bomber aircraft against Taiwan's 478.
Despite the deployment of forces, the beaches that can be used for a possible landing in style are only twelve. The Taiwanese coast is made up of cliffs between 300 and 600 meters high.
Analysts hazard a few tactical hypotheses that Beijing could use. China could send Taipei into total darkness through cyber attacks on the power grid and command and control centers. Then it would be the turn of incursions of airborne troops supported by bombing and missile launches on Taiwanese bases.
The director of the CIA says that Xi Jinping was troubled by the development on the ground of the war in Ukraine. William Burns is convinced that the Chinese president is making new calculations for Taiwan. The CIA does not believe that the Ukrainian resistance against the alleged Russian excessive power has extinguished Beijing's determination to reunify Taiwan, it just imagines that the times and methods of action are undergoing a revision in the light of the Ukrainian lesson.