It is important to see our Europe with non-European geopolitical eyes: this could enrich our knowledge, give us a second opinion, before major events such as the political elections.
Europe today is awaiting two major electoral events that will affect Germany and Italy.
The elections in these two countries follow those already in the Netherlands and France.
Last March, the Netherlands saw the victory of the center-right party of Prime Minister Mark Rutter (VDD, Democratic Liberal) with 33 seats, voted by European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker: "One vote for Europe ".
France voted for Emmanuel Macron as leader of the party "En Marche!" With the 66,10% of votes in the second round with 350 deputies and the absolute majority in Parliament last April (1st round) (2nd round in May).
The 75% of the National Assembly is now formed by new parliamentarians, not present in the previous legislature.
Let's now look at the geopolitical analysis abroad, as it summarizes the salient facts for the forthcoming European elections.
The next round will be September 24 to Germany for the election of members of the lower parliamentary chamber: the Bundestag.
In Germany, like in many other countries, the coalition is needed to form a new government.
According to sector analysis (Stratfor), the average percentages of votes drawn from the various "polls" are as follows:
- CDU (Christian Democrats): 38 / 39%, are the Conservatives led by Angela Merkel who is Chancellor of the 2005, are part of the CDU / CSU (Christian Social Union) group related to the CDU party of Bavaria;
- SDP - Social Democratic Party 23 / 24%: is the largest center-left German party led by 2017 by European Parliament president Martin Schulz;
- FDP Free Democratic Party 8 / 10%: is a left-wing environmentalist club that formed in the 80 years and was part of the coalition government in the 1998-2005 period with SDP;
- The Left 7 / 9%: it is a left-wing party that has seen the light in the 2000 years, it has been part of some regional governments but never part of the federal government;
- Alternative for Germany 7 / 8%: created in the 2013 with a Eurosceptic and anti-immigration spirit. The 2017 could represent the first time for entry into the Bundestag.
Geopolitical analysis provides for Germany a high chance of forming a coalition that continues to give political stability to the country.
Published data may change in the future in accordance with unpredictable events.
For Italy, geopolitical analysis suggests that the 25 June, following the amnesty elections, the political scenario for parliamentary control has become more complicated.
In common 59 prevailed the center-right coalition composed of Forza Italia and the Northern League.
In common 67 prevailed the center left, but this was considered a weak result.
In common 8, it has won the 5 Star Movement despite its strength being centered just around the municipalities.
All parties are trying to form coalitions before the upcoming April elections, but they face difficulties.
The Eurosceptic parties or movements are the Star 5 Movement and the North League.
The Democratic Party (PD), according to the analysis, is now considering its relations with the left parties, reconsidering instead those on the right.
Electoral reform, after months of talks, marked a sharp slowdown due to the disagreement between the major parties.
The PD in the past had pledged the majority system and constitutional reform now is more cautious.
The analysis reports that Italy could find itself facing a non-homogeneous governing coalition (it is defined as a "messy coalition") after the parliamentary elections scheduled for spring 2018.
Voting forecasts now give the PD to the 28% like the 5 Stars Movement, Forza Italia and North League at the 14% each.
This means that no political force, alone, would be able, alone, to govern.
However, we know that conditions may change until elections, but at the moment the word "messy" should be averted: there is time before the elections, but the will of the individual parties becomes decisive.
Europe is on the go, although hard work and the upcoming elections, especially the German ones, will be important to calibrate Europe's pace in the future.
The other countries are constantly looking at us and analyzing why they consider us important checkers in the European chessboard in terms of security: Italy is one of the G7 countries and therefore plays an important role for the stability of other countries as well.
By Pasquale Preziosa