The general Pasquale Preziosa was interviewed by the prestigious American magazine defense.info, on current issues involving new global players in the economic, social and military fields. Particular attention was paid to the new strategic documents of NATO and the EU, considered already "past" and not suitable for modern challenges. The point of view of the general of the Italian Air Force on the concept of Air Power and Joint Air Power is very interesting.
Robbin Laird su defense.info interviewed the general Pasquale Preziosa, former head ofair Force Italian until 2016 and today president ofSafety Observatory di Eurispes.
Precious about today's crisis management challenge said there is an important lesson learned from the 2008 financial crisis in the new digital age. Normal approaches to risk management may be insufficient to manage new crises. Preziosa said that in fact the war in Ukraine required new approaches to crisis management.
Military policy decisions are based on intelligence data, whose alert function has much in common with risk management. He cited a 2016 RAND report:
"When the concept of risk becomes fragmented to obscurity, it cannot significantly contribute to an effective strategic choice. Too often… quantitative risk models have been used to generate objective and presumably reliable predictions of situations that reflected profound uncertainty. When used as a substitute for strategic judgment under uncertainty, risk management invites disaster".
"When the data is sufficient in quality and quantity, the models may be accurate. When we have too little information, this will lead to non-linear dynamics and contested values that belong to the complexity governed by other parameters, in what we should: avoid predictive models, develop scenarios of possible futures, understand the sources of uncertainty, focus on the principles of robustness."
The lesson for the strategist is to realize that the uncertainty management process is an evolving task and should be based on rigorous information searches and analysis of the elements of the strategy.
La NATO recently approved a new one Strategic concept. It reaffirms the values of the Alliance and defines NATO's three core tasks: deterrence and defense, crisis prevention and management, and cooperative security.
The new conceptual document underlines that "Our world is contested and unpredictable… and the threats we face are global and interconnected… Strategic competition, pervasive instability and recurring shocks define our broader security environment ”.
However, Preziosa believes the new strategic concept is more based on risk management in terms of the Cold War, that is a strategy based on risk management for the containment of the military threat and not with uncertainty and strategic competition or active and continuous commitment in facing the adversary.
Furthermore, the recent "strategic compass"Published nine days before the invasion of Ukraine, recognized the need to strengthen the Union's military capabilities and identified priority areas for cooperation such as strategic transport, satellite communications, computer security,intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.
Among the proposals of the Compass, there is also the creation of rapid reaction teams to respond to hybrid threats, disinformation and political interference and, by 2025, a rapid reaction capability of 5.000, a sort of largest EU battle group.
The declared level of ambition to increase the level of strength of the military force to five thousand appeared too late and too weak to eliminate the new European defense architecture whose goal is to achieve a 'strategic autonomy.
Today, national security is about much more than contemporary weapon systems and the concerns of terrorism. It is about the long-term technological prowess, the long-term economic and financial health, and the long-term privacy of citizens, including their medical, financial and other data.
L'The West is now endangered by far more threats than ever before.
In other words, Preziosa analyzed that both NATO and EU new strategies do not focus on the nature of today's strategic competition posed by China e Russia, which requires a constant commitment to tackle law enforcement actions, rather than simply preparing a deterrent attitude.
Air power is preparing a way forward in European defense
Air power, because it is rapid and can have a decisive combat effect, can work to deal with crises more effectively and decisively to provide a crisis management effect or effect than slower movements of other types of power. combat.
"Partnerships are changing; the continents are working to get closer and work more effectively with each other. But there is a lack of governability in the management of new challenges, and problems appear in these areas of lack. There are ongoing conflicts within and between continents, but there are also new patches of challenges emerging within the junctions of the global system where terrorists, organized crime or the forces of instability grow and disintegrate ".
"With the scale and distance of evolving threats and the need for global cooperation or coalitions to address them, air power needs to be changed. We now need resources that operate in a distributed fashion with committed coalitions to address problems quickly. The advantage of air power is its range, speed and mobility. The challenge is to unite the capabilities to quickly put resources against threats and challenges early enough to face them ”.
Sounds like a pretty good prediction to me, reporter Laird emphasizes: looking back how would you describe the change in Europe since then and what role for aviation?
Precious: I wrote a book with the economist Dario Velo The defense of Europe in 2019 by proposing that more than ever we needed European defense.
"We needed to believe and pursue concrete actions to find a true and credible European identity, an identity that in the light of the latest events in the Middle East - Libya, Syria and Iraq - has also been requested by all the major international players since the fluctuating politics foreign country pursued by the United States and the authoritarian powers. To reverse the trend, it was necessary for Europe to quickly recover a strong political initiative and a lost identity ”.
"This proposal anticipated the outcome of the European Council which, on the proposal of President Macron and Merkel, put an intergovernmental conference on the future of Europe on the agenda. Among the issues was the key and projected role that the eurozone will have to play in hot areas of the world, from the Middle East to North Africa. The Conference on the Future of Europe was recently closed pending further action.
"In today's Ukrainian crisis, the EU can offer little in the way of the re-emergence of the military threat near its border, beyond economic retaliation and the usual condemnations and chants of indignation.
"Europe has yet to form and define its defense dimension. And in such a role the air force is crucial.
"The role ofair power it will be persistent and lasting in this century. Air superiority will still be a prerequisite for the success of all operations.
"At the strategic level, national security has become completely dependent on the rapid power projection provided by air power, and with new hypersonic weaponry, air power will be even more significant in shaping options.
"Operationally, Air Power can now deliver the desired effects with minimal collateral damage. At a tactical level, data processing, tracking and sharing will continue to change the way warfare is waged.
"The future of air power will be shaped by the capabilities of UCAV and ML / AI.
"Joint Air Power will have to evolve and adapt to face the future challenges of the security environment, also considering the use of cyber and space as enabling factors and force multipliers.a.
"In other words, working in a more coordinated way in the use of European air power is a fundamental part of the path to be followed for European defense ”.
On the prosperity of the global F-35 enterprise
Laird asked General Preziosa, as a key player in enabling such an undertaking, as he saw the potential for European partners in the F-35 program to mold more capabilities from force and how important is such a development from the view point?
Precious: "I think that under the leadership of NATO the European F 35 could develop more capabilities needed by the European landscape to increase deterrence and defense.
"The F 35 is the only aircraft capable of responding to the Anti-Access / Area Denial strategy.
"There are many European countries that have acquired the F 35 as a replacement for the fourth generation aircraft. All F35 aircraft in Europe could develop under NATO command the capability to deal with the threat indicated in the new NATO Strategic Concept.
"The F35 could be the new standard for the air force to ensure standardization, interoperability and efficiency when deployed in the theater.
"By the way, NATO still lacks the common sense of urgency to collectively address the shortcomings of Joint Air Power and nations undertake projects based on their national interests, not on what is most needed in NATO.
"Short-term focus is important because recent developments in the security environment in Europe show the importance of high readiness and preparedness and the availability of the full range of essential joint capabilities and skills of air power to deter and defend itself from Russia in the whole spectrum of threats ”.
I would add to our discussion that to get to the point where integrability is highlighted and web enabled capabilities are enabled, further development is needed in how European air forces work, integration of the F-35 is required as well. as in the way US forces work with their F-35 aircraft.
Defense in Europe
Laird. Since 2014 with Russia taking over Crimea, it is clear that President Putin has an agenda to expand Russia. The current Ukrainian-Russian war is in the next stage. How can Europe and NATO best address this challenge?
Preziosa concluded the interview by discussing the nature of the challenges facing democracies and some key elements on how to address them.
Valuable, going back to the early 90s, underlined that the nuclear agreement stipulated in that period laid the foundations for the current crisis. She said it like this: "John J. Mearsheimer in an article on Foreign Affairs a year before Budapest where he argued that a nuclear-free Ukraine was not good for either Kiev or for the stability of the Central-Eastern European quadrant. Mearsheimer added that the widespread belief of the time, also promoted by then US President Bill Clinton, was wrong about the advantages of the denuclearization of Ukraine ”.
Preziosa then cited the point of view of President Macron on the new situation facing Europe and the United States.
"President Macron in an interview with Étien Gernelle said that we are at the beginning of a new era and that war has returned to Europe from the unrest in Yugoslavia. A nuclear armed power is threatening a nuclear attack for reasons of territorial expansion and this is a great change in the grammar of deterrence ”.
Preziosa argues that the current Russian aggression against Ukraine is fundamentally different from Crimea. "If in 2008 in Georgia and in 2014 in Ukraine, Russia intervened in reaction to other events, this time it has deliberately chosen war, and this is a great break with the past. The break comes from Vladimir Putin's progressive trend starting in 2008 in Georgia with the perception of a possible NATO enlargement followed by Western weakness in Syria in 2013 when chemical weapons were used.
"Putin is convinced, about a betrayal of the 1990 agreements, of an expansion of NATO with the desire to annihilate his country, of having been abandoned by the West in the Caucasian crisis, essential for Moscow above all because it is aligned with Islam terrorism. Western countries did not understand the consequences in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the secession of the Donbass ”.
Preziosa added: "Putin launched an offensive operation based on the perceived weakness of the West.
Quoting Macron: "All of this doesn't happen in one day. But today the bill has arrived".
The Italian general noted that there are significant spillover effects globally from the war in Ukraine and certainly in Europe. "Events in Ukraine are destabilizing for the Western Balkans, subject to Turkish, Russian and Chinese influences. The hot spot in the Balkans is Kosovo which has never achieved political stability with Serbia ”.
China
In addition to the Russian challenge, China is also increasing its global reach and capabilities. As Preziosa said: China is challenging America's role as the world's only superpower.
As a result of China's growing influence, the spheres of global domination are projected for the future between the authoritarian power and that democratic.
"Since the liberalization of the market in 1978, the Chinese economy has doubled every eight years. Four of the largest banks in the world (by asset) are in China, in the era of easy money, and it is the largest lender in the world.
“The era of America's singular dominance has been challenged in multiple strategic domains, with several second-order results. Recent trade wars have caused rifts between the two nations' trade relations. Cross-border trade agreements in yuan instead of in US dollars they have increased exponentially since 2010. The Chinese initiative Belt & Road signed agreements with 138 countries. Globally, there are over 3485 mega-projects supported by the Chinese government.
"The competition between great powers with a clear distinction between the objectives of democracies and authoritarian powers ”.
But democracies themselves face divisions not only among themselves, but within each democratic state. Finding cohesion where possible is key to charting a way forward to address authoritarian challenges globally.
Preziosa stressed that "Much remains to be done in the United States and Europe to put their political systems in order and preserve the political and economic strength of the world's major democracies ”.
The effects of the global crises for Italy
Italy, too, certainly faces fundamental security challenges alongside those policies that must be addressed as part of a global response to the defense challenges posed by authoritarian powers.
"Russia's aggression against Ukraine highlighted the extremely risky nature of Europe's energy dependence on Moscow. The side effect of the Ukrainian crisis affects the Middle East and North Africa in terms of energy and food security issues.
The fear is that discontent will generate new waves of instability and migratory flows towards Italy and Europe.
Italy is one of the European countries most dependent on Russian energy supplies and the energy question can only assert itself as the first point to be addressed. The first step taken by Italy was to turn to third countries producing and exporting energy, to diversify our sources of supply and pursue our energy security. This strategy involved both African and North African countries such as Egypt, Algeria and Egypt.
"Italy also needs to find internal political stability to shape not only its way forward, but to play the kind of role necessary to expand European influence and cohesion in facing the authoritarian challenges of the 21st century ".
