The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week estimated, due to Covid-19, a global contraction in GDP on average of about 9,7 percentage points, for Italy 9,1 percent. Yesterday the Parliamentary Budget Office, writes the Republic, began to leak the amount of revenue (tax revenue) that could be missing from the state coffers, about 26 billion euros.
In light of this economic indicator, the deficit-to-GDP ratio should reach 8 percent this year (15 percent in the first half of 2020 alone), with a public debt that could reach the value (almost by technical default) of 160 per one hundred compared to GDP.
The missing taxes that the State receives, as is known, mainly serve to support welfare, school, transport, health, essential services. We are talking about the salaries of public employees, including the police and the armed forces. The 26 billion in lower revenues are for the most part due to unrecorded collections for indirect taxes, VAT and excise duties on fuels due to the decrease in consumption. The national GDP will be affected the most, which should lose 9 percentage points compared to last year when tax revenues had produced 219 billion euros.
The revenue from IRES will also be missing, ie the tax paid by companies on corporate profits. The total revenue last year was 33,5 billion, this year, according to estimates, over 3 billion could be lost.
The only ones to guarantee constant tax revenue are employees and retirees who pay the personal income tax. This year the personal income tax for employees, for most of the audience, will be replaced by the personal income tax which is paid on the redundancy allowance. While the part of the personal income tax, about 20 percent, attributable to self-employed workers, without the compensation of the redundancy fund, will have a substantial decline equal to about 9 percent of the GDP estimated at 3,4 billion, reports the Parliamentary Office of the Budget.
The sectors suffering the most will be tourism, catering, retail trade, transport and logistics. The unemployment rate will also increase and will suffer from the difficulty of looking for work due to the mobility block.