(by Massimiliano D'Elia) Today's Council of Ministers will have to play "dead" with no ifs and buts. Premier Giuseppe Conte and the leader of the pentastellati Luigi Di Maio had hoped that the Northern League undersecretary Armando Siri had taken a step back independently.
In reality the Council of Ministers will not be counted by the ministers present (the League has threatened to desert the institutional meeting), because in the case of the undersecretaries, only the will of the president of the council is enough, it is he who names them and it is he who will can "dismiss". The decision to bring the case, within the Council of Ministers, must be read as a desire to share the decision, or bring the League to a crossroads. A kind of point of no return to new elections? A specter that in these days is increasingly turning to rumors leaked by various parliamentary groups. The Northern League leader Matteo Salvini does not want to hear about Siri's resignation, until he is heard by prosecutors. First it doesn't make sense. Always Matteo Salvini tries to move the comparison to another table, on the economy. Salvini wants to close the game of Flat Tax and Autonomy before the 26 elections in May so as not to disappoint his electorate, especially that of the north.
The reasons for breaking up there were first, underlined the number two of the League, the undersecretary to the presidency of the council Giorgetti, referring to the TAV. Now we need to understand the pros and cons of a government crisis close to the European elections. A suicide said Salvini during the meeting with Orban in Hungary. However, the rhetoric between 5S and Lega is causing the supporters of the yellow-green government to become disaffected. Recent polls show a slight decline in approval for the two governing parties and for its two leaders.
Then there is the ax of the "spread", which reads most of all to the sound of billions of interest shares on our public debt, the Italian political thermometer.
A kind of cleaver that "blocks" any idea aimed at bringing down the government, at least for the most responsible. Other heavy taxes in the spread would not be sustainable in the face of growth (0,8 percent) far below the rosiest forecasts of the last financial maneuver.
Salvini probably was wrong not to pull the plug first, now it's too late and would be thrown out by the 5S as the one responsible for the government's failure.
The opinion of Nando Pagnoncelli - IPSOS
Thus Nando Pagnoncelli of Ipsos in his analysis: "more than the internal power relations of the executive, the factor of public opinion weighs heavily. Beyond the skirmishes between the League and the MSS, the government still enjoys very strong support. This executive is born based on "change" and "contract". Voters understood that not everything could be brought home, but only some results, including those not in line with the vote given. Faced with an economic situation that marks a slight improvement, the prospects remain very uncertain and then there is the issue of the next maneuver, which is quite heavy. European requests will have to be satisfied. When there should be a casus belli, who will take responsibility for bringing down the government?".
The polls and the race towards the undecided
Exclusively, the Istituto Noto Sondaggi for Il Sole 24 Ore has predicted that 27% of undecided people could consider voting for the League, 23% for the PD. Third option for the M5S which is attractive for 19%; in the center-right deployment, on the other hand, the attractiveness of FdI (10%) exceeds that of Forza Italia (7%). These trends could have a significant impact on the vote in the European elections compared to what the polls of recent weeks have predicted. For more than two thirds of the undecided electoral competition seems "the second half" of last year's policies, to the point that 66% of the sample claims that these European consultations will directly affect the future of Italian domestic politics. What is the profile of the undecided to whom the parties should turn to win consensus in the next weeks of the election campaign? They are not sovereigns, so the “pro-Europe” (55%) prevail to a greater extent, but at the same time to be “courted” they want to hear about national issues and not about Europe. The party that according to them at the moment speaks more of Italy than of the Union is the League.
The only aspect that will occur after May 26 is the new balance of strength between Lega and M5S. The League will most likely exceed 30 percent and the M5S will border on 20 percent. It will be difficult to face a new financial maneuver with an adjoining VAT increase, with these new approval percentages. Even the number of ministers and undersecretaries will no longer respond to the sentiment of Italians.
Most likely this summer will be very hot with two / three roads marked: government reshuffle, technical government (a Conte bis very welcome at the Quirinale and in Brussels), or new elections, not before October.