The "Olive branch" operation, launched last 20 last January by the Turkish armed forces against the Kurdish militias of the People's Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria, is approaching the end of its first week. The Turkish offensive, conducted with the allies of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), opposition group to the government of Damascus, is directed against Afrin, Azaz and Manbij.
To date, it is not yet clear what will be the scope and duration of the operation, which is already complicated and full of risks. The Turkish army is penetrating the YPG-controlled region with the Leopard-2, German-made tanks from the north and west, supported by intense artillery fire and massive air raids. In the east, operations are conducted by the FSA. On the southern front, fighting against the JPG sees the Tahrir militia employed by Sham, a Syrian opposition group, formerly known as Fronte al Nusra. Intense firefights also take place at Mount Bersaya, a highly strategic high ground whose summit was conquered by the Turkish army and by the FSA militants the 22 last January. The operations of the Turkish armed forces and the allied Syrian militias of Ankara aim at the stronghold of the Ypg in Afrin. To achieve the goal, the army of Ankara does not move from the east, along the Azaz-Tell Rifaat-Afrin route into flat territory, but from the hills to the north and north-west of the Kurdish canton of Afrin. The advance in the plains would, in fact, expose the Turkish military to the Ypg fire, causing the losses that Ankara intends to avoid for domestic reasons. Although slowed by the conformation of the territory, the penetration from the heights allows to acquire a dominant position on the plains and to bomb Afrin with artillery. The strategy of the Turkish armed forces seems to foresee a long siege of the city held by the Ypg, whose population is about 200 thousand inhabitants. At the same time, Ankara is opening several fronts to fragment Kurdish militias, formed by 8-10 thousand fighters, in order to weaken the lines of defense. The military goal of "Olive branch" seems, therefore, to surround Afrin to force the Kurds to surrender. At the same time, giving a demonstration of strength in northern Syria, Ankara seems to set itself the political objective of conditioning the strategies of the other actors with interests in the region, the United States and Russia. In this perspective, Turkey aims to demonstrate its power and ability to change geostrategic structures in Syria, rather than eliminate the one that judges the Ypg threat to its southern borders. Officially, the YPRO has been launched, the Democratic Union party (Pyd) militias, Syrian Kurdish training part of the opposition to the Damascus government supported by the United States. The Turkish authorities judge Pyd and Ypg terrorist groups because they believe they are linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Committed for years in a separatist struggle against Turkey, the PKK is considered a terrorist organization from Ankara, the United States and the European Union. For the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the operation "Olive branch" to Afrin and Manbij, later expanded to Azaz, aims to prevent the formation of a "corridor of terror" used by Pkk, Pyd and Ypg on the border between Turkey and Syria. The political objective of "Olive branch" was underlined by sources close to the Turkish government, which issued statements to the press on condition that they remain anonymous. According to these sources, Ankara is determined to extend the operation in northern Syria from Afrin first to Manbij and then east of the Euphrates River to undermine US cooperation with the YPG. The area, largely controlled by the Kurds, houses about twenty US military bases. While the objectives seem clear, the duration of "Olive branch" is not yet foreseeable. According to President Erdogan, the operation "will last as long as necessary to achieve its objectives". Once Afrin was conquered, the Turkish plan would also provide for the installation of an administration supported by Turkey in the city. According to some analysts, this could be achieved at the beginning of the summer. However, several factors can influence the performance of "Olive branch" and the achievement of the objectives of Ankara. Firstly, the trend in operations is slowed by the morphology of the Afrin region. Unlike the rest of Syria, the territory is, in fact, partially mountainous and dense with woods. These morphological characteristics limit the advance of the Turkish tanks. Furthermore, the harsh and rainy winter climate weakens Turkey's offensive potential and the Ypg's defensive capacity. Kurdish militias could, therefore, avoid frontal contact with the Turkish army and settle on the heights, counting on the support of the local population to organize the resistance. However, a frontal confrontation between the Turkish army and the JPGs can not be excluded. At the moment, the YPGs are taking advantage of operating in a mountainous environment that limits the movements of the armored units and the effectiveness of the air raids of Turkey. This situation could evolve into a long guerrilla war, which presents high risks for the conventional Turkish forces. In this context, the YPG could replicate the tactics employed by the Islamic State: withdraw among the population of population centers, forced to remain in the combat zone to be used as human shields. This hypothesis would have a high cost for Turkey: high civil losses would, in fact, be exploited as a propaganda tool against Ankara. As for the international repercussions of "Olive branch", it seems that the operation has obtained the backing of Russia, which controls all Syrian airspace to the west of the Euphrates River. This prospect sees Moscow aware of the fact that the Turkish military initiative will exacerbate the already tense relations between Ankara and Washington, NATO allies, in order to put the Atlantic Alliance in difficulty. Furthermore, Russia may have hypothesized that the JPG, under pressure from the Turkish and FSA offensive, could succumb to pressure from Moscow for Afrin's return to the Damascus government. In this interpretative framework, it remains to be seen whether Moscow has set limits to "Olive branch". In particular, it is about understanding whether Russia will be willing to provide Turkey with indefinite access to the airspace on Afrin or if it will request to limit the raids. This condition was posed by Moscow during the operation Shield of the Euphrates, conducted by Ankara against the Islamic State and the Syrian Democratic Forces (Sdf) on the western bank of the river from August 2016 to March of 2017. It is likely that Russia will define the duration of "Olive branch", synchronizing it with the progress of the Syrian government army in the province of Idlib (south of Afrin) and the fighting in Deir ez-Zor, on the border between Syria and Iraq , where the YPGs are engaged in operations to control oil reserves. In this perspective, the army of Damascus, backed by the Russian air force, would have more time to consolidate control at Idlib and could advance to Deir ez-Zor. This considered, Ankara, that on the Syrian president Bashar al Assad changed position accepting his stay in power, he could have started negotiations with Damascus to obtain the consent to "Olive branch". However, Al Assad seems aware of the fact that Erdogan would aim at his dismissal. Therefore, the army of Damascus could decide to support the JPGs in Afrin or in the territories east of the Euphrates. Alternatively, Al Assad could take a waiting position, hoping that, at the conclusion of "Olive branch", Afrin and the Kurdish territories of northern Syria will be returned to the Damascus government.