With the release of layoffs at risk 2 million employees
From the estimates on the average turnover trend in 2020, the sectors most affected by the pandemic have affected, in particular, commerce, personal services and the entertainment area. The results reached by the CGIA Studies Office are pitiless:
- travel agencies and tour operators -73,2 per cent;
- artistic activities, gyms, swimming pools, arcades, cinemas and theaters -70 percent;
- hotels and accommodation -53 per cent;
- bars / restaurants -34,7 per cent;
- rental and operating leasing -30,3 per cent;
- trade / repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles -19,9 per cent.
In absolute terms, the most important loss in turnover was in the wholesale trade (-44,3 billion euros). This is followed by the trade / repair of cars and motorcycles (-26,8 billion), bars and restaurants (-21,3 billion euros), artistic activities, gyms, arcades, cinemas and theaters (-18,3 billion), retail trade (-18,2 billion), hotels (-13,9 billion), travel agencies and tour operators (-9,3 billion).
• Almost 300 micro enterprises and 1,9 million employees at risk
According to a recent survey carried out by Istat, 292 companies are in a situation of serious difficulty. Activities that employ 1,9 million people and produce an added value of nearly 63 billion euros. The average number of employees per company in this group of companies so at risk of closure is equal to 6,5. We are talking about micro-businesses which, heavily affected by the health emergency, have not adopted any crisis response strategy and, consequently, run the risk of lowering the shutters for good. The production sectors most affected by these 292 activities are textiles, clothing, printing, furniture and construction. In the service sector, on the other hand, the difficulties of catering, accommodation / hotels, the car trade and other sectors such as retail trade, rental, travel, gaming and sport are distinguished. It is clear that not all of these economic operators will permanently close their doors, however with the release of the layoffs expected by the end of next March, many of the employees of these businesses risk finding themselves without regular employment.
• The crisis is felt above all in the cities of art
The crisis has affected everyone without distinction, even if the South is the geographical area that is suffering more than the others the negative effects of the pandemic, both from an economic and social point of view. However, there is a common denominator that characterizes the whole country: the crisis of the cities of art with a high tourist vocation. Venice, Florence, Pisa, Rome, Verona, Milan, Matera, Padua, Syracuse, Naples, Cagliari, Genoa, Palermo, Turin and Bari are some of the municipalities identified by the "August decree" which in 2020 suffered a vertical collapse in tourist presences foreigners. Faced with this situation, the aforementioned supply chains located in these cities turned out to be the most in trouble and will probably continue to be so this year, at least until we reach a vaccination rate that will guarantee us immunity from flock and therefore the possibility to move freely.
• An increase in undeclared work is foreseeable
It is clear that the crisis caused by the pandemic could dramatically increase the army of squatters and illegal workers in Italy. According to the Istat forecasts illustrated above, 1,9 million employees risk losing their jobs. Hoping that the size of the number of those who will lose their jobs is decidedly lower than expected, the CGIA Studies Office stresses that a part of these redundancies will end up swelling the ranks of the underground economy. In fact, there will be not a few who, after losing their jobs in the factory or in the office, will roll up their sleeves in any way, even resorting to a black job.
We are talking about those people who failing to find a new job will accept irregular employment or improvise as abusive. Thanks to this choice, they will be able to earn a few hundred euros a week; paid little and in cash, all this will take place in black and without any payment of taxes, social security contributions and insurance.
The underground economy will therefore "cushion" the loss of jobs. The latest available data tell us that in Italy there are over 3,3 million illegal workers and 38 percent of the total is present in the southern regions. This army of "invisible" shows up every day in the fields, on construction sites, in factories or in the homes of Italians to lend their work. Although unknown to INPS, Inail and the tax authorities, the negative economic effects that these individuals produce are very worrying. In fact, they “generate” 78,7 billion euros of hidden added value.
• New Government: things to do in the first 100 days
Finally, the CGIA Studies Office hopes that the country will soon return to having a government, because there are so many emergencies to deal with. In the first 100 days, for example, the new Executive will have to face at least 3 major issues. First of all, it will be necessary to reorganize the vaccination plan, making it more effective and efficient, so that we can reach herd immunity as soon as possible, thus leaving behind the limitations to mobility and lockdowns suffered in the last year. Secondly, it will be necessary to introduce measures to support those who, with the release of layoffs, scheduled for April 1st, will lose their jobs. Finally, by April 30, we will have to submit the Recovery plan to the EU. A plan worth over 210 billion euros which in detail must indicate the necessary interventions to be implemented in the coming years to give our country a future.
