Also due to Covid, craftsmanship is increasingly in trouble. In the first 6 months of this year, the companies in the sector decreased by 4.446 units; bringing the total number present in Italy down to 1.291.156.
Both in the I (-10.902) and in the II quarter 2020 (+6.456) the balances were among the worst in the last 10 years, confirming that the crafts, like all the local businesses, was not able to withstand the brunt of the pandemic shock. And if a new total closure of the country were proclaimed, we would most likely see the blow of the final KO. To sound the alarm is the CGIA. The coordinator of the Paolo Zabeo Studies Office states:
“A new generalized lockdown would give the coup de grace to a sector that has been steadily decreasing in number for 11 years. In fact, since 2009, 185 thousand artisan companies have closed the gate for good. This has started the desertification of historic centers and suburbs, contributing to worsening the urban face of our cities which, also for this reason, have become less livable, less safe and more degraded. Let me be clear: there are no miraculous solutions, even if an imminent public intervention is needed at least to calm the cost of rents, reduce taxes, especially local taxes, and facilitate access to credit. Despite the loans disbursed with the liquidity decree, there are still many artisan businesses that are not heard by the banks, with the danger that many of them end up in the network set up by usurers ”.
• The new European credit rules will cause another credit crunch
The difficulty of accessing bank credit by very small companies could even worsen starting from 2021. CGIA secretary Renato Mason underlines:
“From next January 1st, Italian banks will apply the new European rules on the definition of default. These innovations establish more restrictive criteria and methods than those adopted so far. Furthermore, banks are expected to define as defaulting one who has a consecutive arrears of more than 90 days, the amount of which is greater than both euro 100 and 1 per cent of the total exposures to the banking group. If both thresholds are exceeded, the report will be sent to the Central Risks of the Bank of Italy which, automatically, will label the entrepreneur as a bad payer, thus preventing him from having the help of any credit institution for a certain period of time. . A situation that risks affecting many VAT numbers that traditionally are short of liquidity and with great difficulty, especially at this moment, in respecting the repayment plans of their bank debts ”.
Furthermore, this new definition of default will push banks to behave very “prudently” towards customers. With the lowering of the overrun threshold, we will certainly see a surge in non-performing loans. To avoid the negative effects of NPLs, in fact, Brussels has imposed on banks the devaluation of unsecured risk loans in 3 years and in 7-9 years for those with collateral. It is clear that the application of these measures will induce many credit institutions to adopt an attitude of extreme caution in disbursing loans, to avoid having to incur losses in a few years. In short, a new credit squeeze is on the way for many SMEs.
• In time of Covid, it only holds construction
If we go back to looking at the data relating to the birth-mortality of artisan businesses, the very strong decline recorded in the balance for the first quarter (-10.902), was only partially recovered in the second (+6.456): a trend, however, that occurs punctually almost every year, although it should be emphasized that the recovery that took place in the second quarter is largely attributable to construction. This sector, in fact, recorded a balance of +3.863 which accounts for approximately 60 per cent of the national figure for the second quarter. If, in this period of Covid, the traditional sectors of craftsmanship continue to suffer, construction, on the other hand, is in sharp contrast. While waiting for elements that will allow us to elaborate a more in-depth analysis, in our opinion the reasons for this increase can be traced back to two aspects: the first is linked to the contribution given by new entrepreneurs of foreign nationality; the second from the introduction of the 110 per cent superbonus which, most likely, triggered positive expectations among the home sector insiders, to the point of pushing many employees to set up their own business.
• Bad in the North, good for Naples and especially Rome In the first 6 months of the year, the regions that suffered the most important negative balances were those of the North: Lombardy (-1.244), Emilia Romagna (-881), Veneto (-687) and Piedmont (-455). In contrast, however, the scores achieved by Trentino Alto Adige (+118), Campania (+345) and Lazio (+509) should be noted; regions, among other things, which last spring were only touched by Covid. Finally, at the provincial level, Milan (-261), Vicenza (-204) and Bologna (-192) were the realities that suffered most from the decrease in the number of artisan enterprises, while the most virtuous situations occurred in Bolzano. (+120), Naples (+390) and Rome (+629).
