(by Roberta Preziosa) Relations between the two countries that seemed to be proceeding quietly, at least after the Chinese president's visit to Washington last April and the most recent official visits, could change and return to the previous phase of the war on imports.
The problem is always North Korea and since last April, nothing has changed according to US ratings.
The US expected from China a more significant cooperation for solving the North Korean nuclear problem: so it was not.
Already in July, the US President was very disappointed with Chinese behavior on the Korean question.
There are two aspects related to technology on the political table: the first linked to the results of the XIX Chinese Congress which indicated that in 2025 everything must be done in China (it is the equivalent of the western plan of the 4.0 Industry), the second linked to cooperation and the acquisition of technology by China in Western countries.
China imports about $ 230 billion of electronic components from the US (semiconductors and more) and for 2025 would like to reset these imports.
For these purposes, it is gaining technology and companies in Western countries to comply with the 2025 date that, in industrial terms, means tomorrow.
China allows access to the Chinese market, which allows investments in China only when there is technology transfer.
The countries at risk are in general USA and Europe, but particularly South Korea and Germany posing a high risk.
The US president, considering the absence of diplomatic results obtained in the case of North Korea, did not consider it sufficient to do so, based on the request made, that China's efforts to induce Pyongyang to block the race towards nuclear power could begin with the " activation of an investigation according to the rules contained in Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.
The purpose of the investigation is to find contractual elements of violation of current US law, both for investments made and for the transfer of technology and intellectual property.
The investigation would be a big legal sting, which in fact would slow trade with Beijing.
It can not be ruled out that the argument of the violation, if detected, may end up by the World Trade Organization (WTO); the story, however, assumes long periods of legal treatment.
In the presence of violations of US trade law, the US President could issue an "Executive Order" that would block many of China's business activities.
Beijing, at this time, has the need to import many of the high tech content from the US to continue manufacturing in all areas of IT.
In the event of a dispute with the US, the Chinese industry may suffer a major slowdown with negative reflections on the country's internal stability, now ensured by a steadily positive growth process.
US-CHINA dispute over trade, however, will not be resolutely solved the nuclear issue with North Korea.