American politics, which has always traced the future of behavioral trends in various countries around the world, is at a turning point for the globalization process that has represented the mantra of the past.
All comes from the new national security policy of the United States, where security is the solidity of the country's growth parameters.
The US intends to relaunch domestic manufacturing, made in use, for which reason the President's "executive order" was issued, giving the Executive the opportunity to encourage domestic purchases of products and services made in America.
In addition, the President has given the order, provided by the US Trade Expansion Act (1962), to open an investigation to ascertain whether imports of steel from abroad affect national security by marginalizing domestic production, the same survey was ordered in the 2001 with no impact impact; a known statistic figure is that the US in the 2015 produced the 73% of steel needed for domestic needs.
American national security is the reason why the President has pushed for restrictions on imports, even if this will encounter obstacles in negotiations at the WTO (World Trade Organization).
What is noticed is the reversal of decision-making processes, that is, first the national decision and then the international community's negotiation of the decision taken and without return.
The same behavioral logic has led to the exit from Paris's understanding of climate change in the USA.
Not only did the US NAFTA negotiate in the North American Free Trade Agreement review the US request to raise from 62 to 80% the content of the constituent parts of the "automotive" spare parts made in the three countries (Canada, USA, Mexico) of which the 50% should only be "made in usa".
You may agree or not on these decisions but the story is made of facts and these are.
The United States has always used national security mechanisms when its industries were under international competitive stress.
Indeed, even if the WTO is opposed to the new US policy imposing additional import duties if such imports were to be considered as affecting national security under Article XXI of the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) there is the "exemption" clause, the ground for international confrontation is always difficult but not impossible.
Countries that do not have national security legislation and related documents (such as Italy) are reluctant to state their reasons and, when they do, mimic the organized countries.
American policy at this time has two important goals: to strengthen the US economy and create more jobs.
This policy, which is not different from that of other countries, and is not different from the past, presents a small paradox: in the last twenty years, the "free trade" that provided national security through the concept of the Global Supply Chain and this constituted the spirit of transition from the GATT to the WTO, now, instead, they want to change the foundations of the international trade regime.
It is a major change that puts the globalization process that has been pursued so far by the US and other countries in crisis, an indicator of reversal of processes from shared sovereignty to individual sovereignty, from globalization to regionalization, with which states will regain sovereignty lost.
What impacts will it have on the international arena?
What are trend reversals?
In the long run, this new trend will surely limit the excesses of the "Animal Spirits" (Robert Shiller) operating in the market, re-establishing a different internal and international balance, alleviating the potential crisis at the gates of countries, both social and financially.
The US wants to preserve the "dominance" in all fields in the future, especially in the financial one, worth $ 980 trillion dollars.
The two potential international competitors are China and the European Union.
China has initiated a process of substantial transformation and growth but has no big allies and fears the American financial maneuvers that could put the Chinese world in crisis.
The Yuan has made some progress in the last 10 years.
The entry of Chinese currency into the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Right (SDR) shows that China is creating infrastructures to consider the yuan a currency as an international reserve.
Conjugating, in 2017 only 1,7% of international payments was made in yuan.
China faces problems related to its political system, being still an autocracy as it has been confirmed by the last congress, and therefore it will be difficult for the market to accept political interference in the monetary system.
The world's reference currency for the time being is the dollar for trade: US strengthening the dollar will strengthen foreign policy.
Europe does not have the characteristics to become an international geopolitical actor at the moment, it is happy with US protection, what is it, is discussing the future very slowly by great discussions, with no innovative spirit and with some shake (brexit).
It seems that his aspirations have stopped at the EURO, which somehow projects it in the world as a Lebanese or Swiss safe.
But the Euro is a big competitor of the dollar on the international market.
It is the second reference currency: it holds the 32,87% of the coin market, close to the dollar holding the 40,72% of the market. (January 2017 data).
In 1999 some experts reported that in the 2015 the dollar would be replaced by the euro (Alan Greenspan, The era of turbulence).
It was at that time considered that the German mark and the French franc and other coins then into the euro were, individually, very small to challenge the dollar as a reserve currency.
It is surprising how, with discretion, the ECB and the Euro have become international forces.
The ECB has become an internationally important strength independent of the task of maintaining price stability in an area that produces one-fifth of world GDP.
If Europe were to continue on the path of reform, it would only be possible to strengthen the Euro and the rest of the world would be happy with the exception of the US that would lose international financial leadership.
Being the reference currency, for global exchanges, gives the privilege of freely printing the currency that will still be absorbed by the international market (exorbitant privilege was called by French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing).
This is the ongoing challenge, the paradigm shift on globalization has its Troy horse in its interior.
Bringing sovereignty to the United States now becomes important today for the purposes of foreign policy and dominance.
Europe, on the other hand, has a new opportunity to reform and continue to consolidate its institutions, using the same US policy to strengthen the economy and create more jobs.
By Pasquale Preziosa