Libya is today a crossroads of international interests since the United States has shown total disinterest in African affairs. France, Turkey, Russia, Egypt and Italy will try to regain or consolidate their positions in the coming months, with a dangerous resurgence of the civil war between the various Libyan factions on the horizon.
(By Massimiliano D'Elia) Turkey increases its influence in Libya day by day, it is now a fact. A few days ago the news came that the government of Tripoli, chaired by Abdulhamid Dbeibah, signed two military cooperation agreements with the Turkish Ministry of Defense in Istanbul. The first, in reference to the development of the capabilities of the Libyan air force, the second to implement the agreements signed three years ago between Tripoli and Ankara. It is no coincidence that about two weeks ago the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, had signed an agreement with the government of Dbeibah for hydrocarbons in the eastern Mediterranean.
"We have signed a hydrocarbon protocol and a gas agreement is being negotiated between our energy ministries“, Cavusoglu commented on the sidelines of the signing of the protocol.
Turkey and Libya have therefore signed an even more exclusive agreement, which grants Turkey the joint exploitation of the new fields identified, the construction of new refining plants and above all the transport to Turkey and to other countries, via methane and oil pipelines, of gas and oil already exploited in Libya and those of the new fields in the same waters that Greece, Egypt and Cyprus claim as part of their EEZs (Exclusive Economic Zones).
Turkey has therefore decided to remain in Turkey and is doing so by binding itself with bilateral treaties and protocols, in a particularly hot moment in the North African country where the provisional government (under UN aegis) of Dbeibah and Fathi Bashagha. A third inconvenience has been added to the two contenders: the president of the Libyan High Council of State, Khalid A1-Mishri, expressed a desire to form a third executive.
Among the three contenders, the general of Cyrenaica always remains active Kalifa Haftar whose ambiguity is now known to all the actors: it is linked to Macron's France since 2019, it is close to Cairo but also to Moscow, through the mercenaries of the Wagner group (convicted of violation of human rights in Africa). Last September Haftar also met the Egyptian intelligence number one in Benghazi, Abbas Kamel.
The new Italian government wants a new role in the enlarged Mediterranean
So the Italian government just took office from the words of its premier Giorgia Meloni:
"I believe that Italy should promote a "Mattei plan"For theAfrica, a virtuous model of collaboration and growth between the European Union and African nations, also to counter the worrying spread of Islamist radicalism, especially in the sub-Saharan area. We would like it so Our intention is always the same. But if you don't want it to be talked about naval blockade I will say it like this: Because we do not intend in any way to question the right of asylum for those fleeing wars and persecutions. Our goal is to prevent Italy from continuing to be screened by smugglers on immigration. We must recover our strategic role in the Mediterranean after years of retreating ”.
In the difficult work of regaining its positions in Libya and in the Mediterranean, the Franco-Italian axis could play a decisive role which, apparently, is already taking its first steps in Europe to bring Germany to more conciliatory positions with respect to the different ongoing crisis, from the energy to the economic one, passing through the control of migratory flows towards the Old Continent.
The agreements of 2019
The Prime Minister of the Libyan National Accord Government, Fayez al Sarraj, in 2019, had asked Italy, the US, the United Kingdom, Algeria and Turkey to "activate the security cooperation agreements" for "repel the attack on Tripoli, carried out by any armed group". Sarraj had also asked the five countries to "Cooperate with the government of national agreement in the fight against terrorist organizations", illegal immigration and human traffickers.
The Italian position. “The solution to the Libyan crisis can only be political, not military. For this reason we continue to reject any kind of interference, promoting instead a stabilization process that is inclusive, intra-Libyan and that passes through diplomatic channels and dialogue.". Thus sources of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the aftermath of the letter sent by the Libyan president al Sarraj to Italy and other countries regarding the request for military aid.
Faced with the feeble European reaction Turkey e Libya in November 2019 they signed an agreement on a military collaboration which, as recalled by Erdogan, also provided for the possibility of a Turkish military intervention, in case of invitation. The agreement provided for the new delimitation of the respective ones Zee, the Exclusive Economic Zones in the Eastern Mediterranean. The agreement was then also ratified by the Turkish parliament while Erdogan warned that the operation carried out by his government together with that of Tripoli it was also perfectly lawful from the point of view of international law.
The Turkish Parliament in January 2020 also approved the sending of troops to Libyan soil in support of the GNA (Government of National Accord) in Tripoli while the conquest of Sirte by Haftar's forces took place. The Turkish president had declared that the objective of his military intervention "was not to fight" But say "support the legitimate government and avoid humanitarian tragedies ”.
"The agreement with Turkey - announced a spokesman for the Libyan executive - it officially entered into force "with the publication of the agreements in the Libyan Official Gazette". (beginning of 2020 ed).
"We are ready - stated the Turkish president in no uncertain terms - to carry out joint explorations with Libya in search of offshore hydrocarbons in the areas delimited by the memorandum of understanding".
With this move Turkey has, in fact, ousted Italy, France and other European countries from Libya, not only politically but also from a commercial and oil point of view.
Looking at a map of the eastern Mediterranean, the conformation of the new borders of the respective Zee appears at first glance one provocation. The agreement between Ankara and Tripoli could in fact create a Turkish - Libyan corridor capable of ousting the Greece on one side and Cyprus, Egypt ed Israel on the other, already active with the submarine gas pipeline EastMed.
Naturally, Ankara's need to safeguard its national interest, specifically that of energy, must be contextualized within a much broader foreign policy project aimed at strengthen its influence in both the Middle East and North Africa in a neo-Ottoman perspective.
THEXNUMX-XNUMX business days had reiterated what he had said three years earlier: "The EU recalls that its position on this Memorandum was clearly stated by the European Council in December 2019 and remains unchanged. The 2019 Memorandum of Understanding between Libya and Turkey violates the sovereign rights of third states, does not respect the Law of the Sea and cannot produce any legal consequences for third states".
"The EU is not an international judicial body that can comment or judge agreements between sovereign third countries. Any objection to an agreement signed by two sovereign states constitutes a violation of international law and fundamental principles of the UN”, Commented the spokesman for the Turkish Foreign Ministry Tanju Bilgic in reference to the Brussels declarations on the new Memorandum.
Il US State Department had declared that the Provisional Government of National Unity of Libya has the obligation, set by the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (the instance that approved the current Libyan institutions in February 2021), not to sign new agreements likely to disturb the country's foreign relations or which would translate into long-term obligations. "We invite all parties to refrain from actions that risk increasing tension in the eastern Mediterranean", a State Department spokesman said.
The response from Athens. "The Turkish-Libyan "memorandum" of 2019 is illegal, null and void. Therefore, no one has the right to invoke it ", so in a tweet the foreign minister Nikos Dendias.
In Libya, the signing of the new Memorandum was immediately opposed by Tripoli's opponents. Aguila Saleh, president of the House of Representatives (the so-called "parliament of Tobruk"), and Fathi Bashagha, head of the alternative government supported by the parliament of Cyrenaica, "branded" the agreement of 3 October 2019 as null, as it did the High Council of State (another transitional body). In a letter to the United Nations, Saleh had stated that the agreement is not binding on the Libyan state because the mandate of the government Interim based in Tripoli, headed by Abdulhamid Dabaiba, has expired. He warned that the agreement would destabilize the eastern Mediterranean. Bashagha deprecated it as a threat to peace and stability in Libya.
Opponents of Dabaiba say his term ended in December 2021 when Libya did not hold elections, as outlined in road map for United Nations-mediated peace. Furthermore, they claim, the road map does not authorize the government Interim of Dabaiba to conclude international agreements. Even the oil minister of the Dabaiba government, Moahamed Aoun, complained that he was sacked on the eve of the signing of the new memorandum, as he was doubtful of its contents. Aoun's proxies were transferred to the Minister of Economy Muhammad Al-Huwayj, who signed the Memorandum on the Libyan side together with the Foreign Minister Mrs Najla el Mangoush.