In relation to the latest events in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict with Wagner's capture of Bakhmut's stronghold, the encroachment of alleged Russian revolutionary troops in Belgorod and the request for F16s which were accepted by the West, we asked General Pasquale Preziosa, president of the Eurispes Security Observatory, an analysis from a military strategic point of view.
General, how can we comment on this attack on Belgorod with drones which by the way are supposed to be American?
This attack of anti-Putin nationalist Russian partisans they started from Ukraine so they have an all-Ukraine budding. Some infrastructural damage done beyond the Ukrainian borders by these forces defined by the Ukrainians themselves as revolutionary were shown on TV.
Citizens from areas affected by these attacks have been moved to safer areas and a Russian military contingent has been relocated to secure the area.
The spokesman for the Kremlin Peshkov he said the saboteurs will be "wiped out". From a first analysis it seems, at the moment, more of a war of narratives than the beginning of a trend of internal destabilization of the Putin regime. However, it is necessary to observe the next moves of these partisans to assess their potential to contaminate the Russian social class.
These partisans, it is said, are Russians but live in Ukraine as dissent is not allowed in Russia. Indeed, all opponents of the Putin regime living in Russia are in jail. Those who are abroad and have expressed dissent towards Putin's regime have been persecuted and eliminated with the exception of those who live in Ukraine.
La Russia is also referred to as one anocracy because it mixes autarky with some elements of democracy, unfortunately without full respect for the rules of either characteristic. However, it should be noted that Putin, according to the latest polls, enjoys high consensus among the population within his country.
This clashes with the possibility that these revolutionary movements could spread throughout the country. I believe that these actions carried out across the Ukrainian border are the fruit of the Ukrainian secret services whose true goals may be clearer in some time.
Let's also analyze the situation in Bakhmut because the centre, the heart of the city, by now we have understood, should be in the hands of the Russians, while the fighting continues around the city. Bakhmut is therefore a symbolic city, but the fighting continues because Ukraine is preparing the counter-offensive announced for a long time now. Now Kiev has also asked for F16s.
General, speaking of F16s, how important are they and how could they evidently change the fate of this war?
In this war it is just missed the use of air power by both sides in the sense that above all the missile part was used, both offensive and defensive. The Air Force has had limited use because both the Russian and Ukrainian regions are strongly defended by effective anti-aircraft systems.
To conduct air operations in these heavily defended areas it is necessary to have latest generation means (5th generation) capable of penetrating the enemy defenses with low operational risk.
The use of 16th generation F 4 aircraft in the Ukrainian theater will have to consider this scenario because the operational level of risk will not be low and will require extensive deployment of electronic warfare packages to support air campaigns.
The use of the air forces will raise the costs of the confrontation and it is difficult to evaluate the effects on an operational level today because it will be necessary to evaluate the Russian response to this Western initiative.
Russian air power is still intact. The use of Ukrainian air power only on Ukrainian territory will not be able to harm Russian air power which today is entirely deployed on Russian territory.
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