The estimates of the Observatory on financial statements published by the Council and the National Foundation of Accountants: In 2021 a reduction in turnover of -35% is estimated against -44,2% in 2020
Due to the Covid-19 emergency, the restaurant and hotel sector burns over 2020 billion euros in the two-year period 2021-38. In particular, the more than 74 joint-stock companies of this sector would realize a total loss of 38,503 billion euros, equal to about half of the entire sector. The accommodation sector would record an overall decline of € 17,5 billion, while the catering sector a decline of € 21 billion. However, 2021 is slightly better than 2020 compared to 2019. This year, in fact, the total turnover of joint-stock companies is expected to decrease by -35% against -44,2% in 2020.
These are the estimates quantified by the 2019 Budget Observatory of the Council and the National Foundation of Accountants.
The sample analyzed is made up of almost 75 companies with over 670 employees and almost 49 billion in turnover at 2019 values. In terms of turnover, the joint-stock companies examined in these simulations cover more than 50% of the entire sector it presents, again at 2019 values, a total turnover close to 90 billion euros with about one and a half million employees. The vast majority of the companies examined by the Observatory do not exceed 10 million euros in turnover. There are just 410 joint-stock companies that exceed 10 million in turnover with revenues exceeding 14 billion euros, 29% of the total and employ almost 144 employees, 21% of the total.
The simulations were conducted taking into account the economic trends of the sector in 2020 as detected by Istat and the Mef and the projections conducted for 2021. The latter were developed taking into account the seasonality of the tourism sector and the impact of the restrictive measures adopted. by the government for the first quarter of the year. For the remainder of the year, the simulations were conducted by providing for a gradual, but partial, recovery of the sector as vaccinations continue and the indicators allow for the reopening of activities. In any case, a strong recovery is expected in the third quarter which, in some cases, reaches 90% of pre-covid levels, and a good recovery also in the fourth quarter which, however, especially for the hotel sector, should still be affected. the collapse of arrivals from abroad is strongly negative.
The Observatory also analyzes the precovid era. In 2019, compared to the previous year, the Srls of the restaurant and hotel sector were growing. In particular, against an increase in employees of 1,4%, there was an increase in revenues of 6,3% and in the value of production of 6,1%, which translated into an increase in value added by 5,3%. , 6,5%. Geographically, the best performances in terms of turnover were recorded in the South (+ 3,5%), while the lowest growth in the Center (+ XNUMX%).