The forecasts show us that within the next 10 years the number of people of working age (15-64 years) in Italy is destined to decrease by 3 million units (-8,1 percent). If at the beginning of 2024 this demographic cohort included just under 37,5 million units, in 2034 the same is destined to fall dramatically, stopping at just under 34,5 million people. The reasons for this collapse are to be found in the progressive aging of the population: with fewer and fewer young people and with many baby boomers destined to leave the job market upon reaching age limits, many territories will suffer a real "depopulation", including of potential workers, especially in the South. Among the 107 provinces of Italy monitored, underlines the CGIA research office which developed the ISTAT demographic forecasts, only that of Prato will record a positive absolute variation in these 10 years (+1.269 units equal to +0,75 per hundred). All the other 106, however, will have an advance balance from the minus sign.
Epochal changes are underway
If we add geopolitical instability, energy and digital transition to the demographic recession, our businesses are destined to suffer frightening repercussions. The difficulty, for example, of finding young workers to join artisan, commercial or industrial companies is already felt now, let alone in a few decades. Obviously, those hoping for a reversal of the demographic trend risk being disappointed. Unfortunately, there are no measures capable of changing the sign of this phenomenon in a reasonably short time. And not even resorting to foreigners will be able to "resolve" the situation. Therefore, we must resign ourselves to a progressive slowdown, including in GDP. Not to mention that a society with fewer young people and older people will have to face a surge in social security, health and welfare spending that will make your wrists tremble.
Fewer workers especially in the South
As we said above, the most significant contractions of the working-age population will concern, in particular, the South. The most critical scenario will affect Basilicata which within the next decade will suffer a reduction in this group of people by 14,6 percent (- 49.466 people). Followed by Sardinia with -14,2 percent (-110.999), Sicily with -12,8 percent (-392.873), Calabria with -12,7 percent (-147.979) and Molise with -12,7 percent (-22.980). On the other hand, the regions least affected by this phenomenon will be Lombardy with -3,4 percent (-218.678), Trentino Alto Adige with -3,1 percent (-21.368) and, finally, Emilia Romagna with -2,6 percent (-71.665) (see Tab. 1 and Graph 1).
Micro and small businesses will pay the bill
Already today many companies, even in the South, report the difficulty of finding trained personnel to include in their workforce. Despite this, the South could have fewer problems than the Centre-North. Unlike the latter, in fact, the former, having very high unemployment and inactivity rates, could fill, at least in part, the employment gaps which will especially affect the agri-food and hospitality sectors (hotels, restaurants and cafeterias). It is also clear that many companies, especially small ones, will be forced to downsize their workforce because they are unable to hire. For medium and large companies, however, the problem should be more limited. With the possibility of offering higher than average salaries, reduced hours, benefits and important corporate welfare packages, the few young people present in the job market will have no hesitations in choosing large rather than small and micro businesses which, these benefits, cannot deliver them.
Less GDP from real estate, transport, fashion and hospitality
A country with an increasingly elderly population could have serious problems balancing its public finances in the coming decades; particularly due to the increase in health, pension, pharmaceutical and welfare spending. It should also be noted that with few under 30s and a very widespread presence of over 65s, some important economic sectors could suffer negative repercussions, causing a structural contraction in GDP. With a much lower propensity to spend than the young population, a society made up mainly of older people risks reducing the turnover of the real estate, transport, fashion and hospitality sector (HoReCa). On the other hand, however, banks could count on some positive effects; with a greater predisposition to save, older people should increase the economic size of their deposits, thus making many credit institutions "happy".
More young people in territories where there are more foreigners
Again according to estimates developed by the CGIA Research Office on Istat data, between 2024 and 2034 Agrigento will be the Italian province that will record the demographic recession of the most important working population: -22,1 percent, in absolute terms , at -63.330 units.
Followed by Ascoli Piceno with -19,6 percent (-26.970), Caltanissetta with -17,9 percent (-28.262), Enna with -17,7 percent (-17.170), also Alessandria with -17,7 percent (-48.621), Nuoro with -17,6 percent (-21.474), Southern Sardinia with -17,5 percent (-35.662) and Oristano with -16,9 percent (-15.482). Among the territories which, however, will feel the demographic decline of active workers less than the others, we point out Milan with -2 percent (-41.493), Bologna with -1,1 percent (-6.928), Parma with -0,3, 883 percent (-0,75) and, finally, Prato which, unlike all the other provinces, will present a result anticipated by the plus sign (+1.269 percent equal to an absolute value of +2). The positive result of Prato and of those provinces which have suffered smaller contractions than the others is attributable to the fact that, among other things, these territorial realities have a very high rate of foreign population compared to the resident population, thus lowering the average age and positively impacting births (see Tab. XNUMX).
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