(by Andrea Pinto) "The decision to leave is taken. What's the point of waiting again? To listen to yet another appeal, perhaps not even completely sincere, to unity?. The decision is made, confirms a Renzi loyalist. The confirmation last night when Matteo Renzi before returning from England phoned Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to inform him of the decision; "I leave the Democratic Party".
"Braking? I do not think there will be ”specifies the same faithful Renziano. Perhaps already this week the new Renzian groups could be born: twenty deputies to form an autonomous group in Montecitorio and a patrol of senators that will go to the Mixed. This is because in the Senate the regulation does not provide for the establishment of new groups in the current term, where the party symbols already presented are accepted.
Among the deputies involved in the operation, the vice president Ettore Rosato, Maria Elena Boschi, the two undersecretaries Ivan Scalfarotto and Anna Ascani, Michele Anzaldi, Luciano Nobili, Luigi Marattin (on pole as group leader), Silvia Fregolent, Mauro Del Barba, Carmelo Miceli.
"We're not doing a shopping campaign. The last call from an interested deputy arrived this morning ... ". In the Senate the numbers will be more contained and with Renzi the loyal Francesco Bonifazi, but not Andrea Marcucci, who, the Renzians themselves, would like to remain the leader of the Pd group, should move with all probability.
Among the parliamentarians who could also follow Renzi Roberto Giachetti who yesterday published a video on Fb to announce his resignation from the management of dem as "frontman" of the no to any hypothesis of agreement with the 5 Stars. "I could not continue to stay in a political control booth that must support this project, not being fully convinced. Inside me they can't hide the doubts I have".
The Renzian groups are born with the commitment to support the government - Teresa Bellanova will be head of the Chigi Palace as Minister - and on this we want to reassure both M5S and the premier Giuseppe Conte.
But with the intent to signal for a non-accommodating line with 5Stelle. The 'moderate RENZIANI' of reformist base, the Lotti-Guerini component, remain in the Democratic Party. Alessia Morani and Simona Malpezzi, leaving Palazzo Chigi after being sworn in by undersecretaries, seem to confirm this. "I appeal to unity, I hope that nobody makes an incomprehensible choice for voters", says Morani and Malpezzi: "The Democratic Party is a plural house where there is room for everyone".
In the Democratic Party they talk about consensual separation, but it is not so because many people turn up their noses, one among them Senator Zanda and others who have struggled to forge an alliance with 5 Stars.
This latest turn of Matteo Renzi, sounds like a "Tale- Gypsy girls were serene". Matteo Renzi wants to seize the few opportunities presented to him to return to the Italian political scene with the "titles that matter". Now he is relegated to a corner of the Senate and the only way to decide independently on political choices is to break away from the Democratic Party. In the Senate, the votes of the Renzian senators are "indispensable" for the government to maintain and it is precisely on this ground that Matteo Renzi wants to dictate his political line to oppose, where deemed necessary, to the "indigestible" programmatic lines of the 5 Star Movement. Matteo Renzi could pull the rope until the last vote in the Senate to force the Democratic Party to give him the "scepter, or to Forza Italia to favor the birth of a moderate center".
The surveys on Renzi's new political entity
Alessandra Ghisleri, as early as last March, he had tested the terrain on which the former premier Matteo Renzi intends to position his new party: "Then we measured the catchment area of the voters potentially interested in the project and fixed it between the 6% and the 8%, specifying also that not all interested parties would then vote for an eventual "Renzi party".
The Corriere della Sera also reports the data of Lorenzo Pregliascofounder of YouTrend, which starts from a raw data extrapolated for Sky in full government crisis, in early September: "In those days the trust in Renzi was 15-20%. A very low figure (President Conte was beyond the 50%, ed) which realistically credits a party that refers to Renzi around 3% -3,5% ". The quoted figures specify Pregliasco, they must not be misleading because there are no elections in sight and, therefore, there are very many undecided. And then in the logic of the coalitions who reaches the 3% or even the 5% can represent the needle of the balance for a majority or not to count anything because it does not exceed the threshold of barrier.
Roberto Weber (Ixè) believes: "the 5% threshold is rather high" given to the "Renzi party". According to Weber Renzi points to a moderate area, which courts the elector attracted by the politics of doing and does not find himself with a government that is too unbalanced on the left.
Carlo Buttaroni di Tecne, instead, he says: "When the Democratic Party was in opposition and relegated to a corner, Renzi's attractive strength was 4% -7,5%".