(by Massimiliano D'Elia) "The mission's goal was not to build a nation, but to counter terrorism. We could not and should not have fought a war that even the Afghan army did not want to fight", like this Joe Biden summed up the Nation last night debacle of his Administration and intelligence that has not been able to predict what an analyst of average experience can read with little data in their possession. It is true what Biden says, we were there to counter terrorism, it is a pity that the Allies followed the US for twenty years, without ever batting an eye, in a quagmire that took away human lives (53 Italians) and trillions of dollars. with the paradigm "we are there to fight terrorists to ensure security in our home ".
We have deluded ourselves, with our humanitarian projects, of being able to change the millennial history of a people that does not yet have a clear concept of nation, government, institutions. In the large urban centers, where we had our bases, something was changing but it was only a grain of sand in a desert, Afghanistan, made up of an extensive and indented tribal, ethnic and religious structure, where its people do not recognize the references state. In such a prohibitive social context, to make democracy sprout / export, the only ones who are probably able to take root with their unique ideological and motivational glue are the Taliban, whether like it or not, it is they who are praised and respected, seen as the the only ones able to manage the established order, even cutting the throats of opponents or those who violate strict religious laws.
This is why their advance towards Kabul was smooth and in some ways triumphant: they freed the country from Western invaders, who wanted to impose their way of life, and from the current corrupt rulers who had not even paid their salaries for months. How was it expected that the Afghan army, well trained and equipped by Westerners, fought without pay and above all against those with whom the Americans had made an agreement in Doha?
In all these years the Taliban, perched on the border with Pakistan, have reorganized, have developed a significant strategic capacity, have continued to receive funding for equipment and weapons and have regained, without a shot being fired, 40 per cent of the country, with the tacit endorsement of the Americans. Today they celebrate the twentieth anniversary of the attack on the Twin Towers (11 September 2001) by controlling the whole country with the proclamation of theIslamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
The birth of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is not an aspect to be underestimated, it is probably the birth of the state that terrorists all over the world wanted and had not been able to establish between Syria and Iraq (ISIS). Yes, because in the mountains of Afghanistan there are fugitives from Isis and Al Qaeda, who, according to the Doha agreement, the Taliban should fight. However, one figure should make everyone think about it: Al Qaeda is already present in 15 provinces. The intelligence, in fact, fears a new wave of foreign fighters, confirmed by a recent United Nations report of 21 July last: “Security in Afghanistan remains fragile, the peace process is uncertain. Al Qaeda is present in at least 15 provinces, mainly in the east, south and south-east areas ". According to the report, some ISIS sleeper cells, in competition with Al Qaeda, continue to operate around Kabul and in the provinces of Nuristan, Badakhstan and Kunduz.
However, ISIS and Al Qaeda have a common thread: they want to bring together all those who reject the Peace Agreement between the United States and the Taliban.
If the Taliban respect the Doha agreement, however, they could also receive the support of Russia and China, which see Afghanistan as an important strategic hub for their activities (Russian gas pipeline and Chinese Silk Road). If everything were to take a different direction, however, Afghanistan could become the pole of attraction of world fundamentalism, just as Syria was for the Islamic State until recently, thus welcoming fighters from Africa, the Middle East. and also from Europe who would go there to train and export the skills to carry out terrorist attacks. It is not secondary then to congratulate the telebans also Hamas, which has done so publicly through its social channels.
Then there is the refugee problem. 2,9 million Afghans have already been displaced from the country at the end of 2020 and about 250 Afghans have been forced to flee since the end of May (UNHCR-UN data).