Probable ballistic test of North Korea. In the event of war London will send the Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier F-35B of the Marine Corps
Within a few hours North Korea will be the anniversary of the foundation of the Workers' Party. October 10 is a particular date greeted at home with celebrations and military tests of some sort. In the week-end that just elapsed, Pyongyang hosted the work of the Seventh Central Workers Party Committee chaired by Kim Jong Un. Two points on the agenda at the plenary: the international situation and the party's organization.
Kim Jong Un, president of the Korean Workers Party, presented a report on the first agenda.
Kim Jong Un's talk
"The complicated international situation requires immediate actions that the party must continue to define and implement. US imperialists are trying to stifle the sovereignty and rights of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, always lifting new UN sanctions through its vassals. North Korea's nuclear weapons are a precious resource for defending the fate and sovereignty of the country against the prolonged threats of US imperialists. And they are powerful deterrents that firmly protect peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. Reliably guarantee the sovereignty of the Korean nation, the rights to existence and development. The nuclear weapon is a sword of justice that directs the clouds of tyranny through its terrible power. Thanks to nuclear justice, we could lead an independent and happy life under the clear blue sky. The science and technology of our country have made great strides. Our national economy has also grown despite the sanctions of US imperialists and their vassals. Decisions in Congress will guarantee a perfect independent economic structure, beyond the sanctions that our enemies will impose on us. The current situation shows that our party is absolutely right in reviving the economy and building a powerful nuclear force. It is a path that our party will always have to pursue. Our strategy will succeed in putting an end to the blackmail and nuclear threats of US imperialists. The party and the masses must be one thing. This unit is the most powerful weapon of the Korean revolution. The revolutionary mentality of the Party must always be devoted to its people. The main key to evading the extremely vicious sanctions and pressure of US imperialists and their vassals is to turn the misfortune into a blessing so as to strengthen the independence and character of Juche in the national economy. Science and technology are the pulsing engine of a powerful socialist country. The current situation is delicate, we will have to face numerous trials, but our party remains confident in the final victory. Any upheaval will not undermine the confidence that the army has for the Party. Our cause is invincible because it is shaped by the solid economic and thinking bases promoted by President Kim Il Sung and by leader Kim Jong Il ".
10 October 2017
From the purely institutional point of view, with the visit to the Sun and Political Palace, the anniversary of the founding of the North Korean communist party has already come to an end. In addition to the work of the Seventh Central Workers' Party Commission, the Youth Room welcomed a delegation from the country's students to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of Kim Jong Il's nomination as Secretary General of the Korean Workers Party. The North Korean women's associations have also found themselves in Pyongyang to celebrate "the maternal party that becomes a harmonious set with popular masses, invincible combat force."
The anniversary of the foundation of the Workers Party is usually greeted, according to a calendar, with a military test. Today Columbus Day is celebrated in the United States. For Independence Day, last July, North Korea launched a Hwasong-14 ballistic missile.
North Korea, here's what could happen between 24 hours
H bomb on the Pacific: highly unlikely
Last September 3 Pyongyang announced to the world that it had tested its most powerful nuclear weapon. It is a shareable statement for an estimated explosive yield of 100 kilotoni. The US Geological Survey detected the 6,3 magnitude earthquake, with its epicenter near the Punggye-ri site, but did not confirm the exact nature of the explosion. For North Korea it would have been a hydrogen bomb, entirely made at home and able to be loaded on intercontinental carriers. The North will now have to demonstrate that it has completed the standardization of nuclear warheads for transport on intercontinental vectors and completed the cycle of re-entry technology. The missile cycle is divided into three phases: thrust, maneuvering in space and terminal. An intercontinental ballistic missile, after the propulsion and thrust phase, reaches the earth's orbit to release the main return vehicle, the tip of the missile. The latter, once positioned by inertial navigation, releases the heads that hit the objectives returning from the Earth's atmosphere. In addition to the maximum range, a missile must also be able to carry a warhead, survive the re-entry into the atmosphere and hit a target accurately. The process involves shielding the head from the high temperatures generated by re-entry into the earth's atmosphere at a speed of 7 km per second. The test showed that Pyongyang is able to build a weapon, but not that it can be used immediately. The only way to verify the rhetoric of North Korea would be a real use of the weapon system. The principle of deterrence is based on the balance between the scant information and those covered by military secrecy. Sufficient information to scare the enemy. The problem is that not always (as in the case of North Korea) the enemy gets scared. According to the George W. Bush administration, North Korea was close to developing an ICBM that could threaten the United States. In the 2000, North Korea's projection missile technology had clearly been overestimated. Subsequent administrations have adopted a skeptical approach (as was the case for the Chinese in the '60' years), changed again after the recent tests. It is undeniable that the United Satti, as confirmed by the Defense Intelligence Agency last 28 July, have underestimated the determination of Kim Jong-un. One day (not tomorrow), North Korea will be able to close the ICBM cycle with a warhead able to re-enter the atmosphere and hit the target.
In the years 60 Washington underestimated China's engineering and nuclear capabilities, up to the 27 real 1966 October test. That day, China launched a medium-sized ballistic missile armed with a nuclear warhead, demonstrating the wrong analytical and tactical approach of US security agencies in assessing the real technological degree (some could identify the same similarities as the Japanese force estimate before Pearl Harbor). North Korea identifies itself as a responsible nuclear power, not testing ground.
We must never forget that Pyongyang has the constant need to demonstrate to the world its technological degree. Reason why a missile for a detonation on the Pacific would be preferable to the launch of an H system from an aerial platform. It would be a way to prove the existence of a real deterrent. If it happened (many doubts in this regard), it would be the first atmospheric test since 1980. More than a hundred devices were detonated in remote areas of the Pacific Ocean since the advent of nuclear power. There are many variables to consider, such as the size of the device and its release system (both should work perfectly) and weather conditions. Regardless of the geopolitical fallout, the environmental effects could be devastating. If the detonation occurred, it would destroy or contaminate the flora and fauna with a series of incalculable effects. The United States tested a single strategic system in the atmosphere during the Frigate Bird test of Operation Dominic, in May of 1962. The USS Ethan Allen strategic submarine (SSBN-608), leader of the homonymous class, on May 6 of the 1962 launched a Polaris A-1 missile armed with a W-47Y1 thermonuclear warhead on the Mk-1 re-entry vehicle. The launch area was located southwest of Hawaii with impact area in the open ocean near the Christmas Island. After covering 1100 miles in twelve minutes, the warhead exploded in the Pacific at an altitude between 3.000 and 4.600 meters, with an estimated detonation of 600 kilotoni, 40 times more powerful than the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima. The only end-to-end test of a US nuclear strategic system remains.
Juche Bird?
One day (not tomorrow), North Korea will be able to close the ICBM cycle with a warhead able to re-enter the atmosphere and hit the target. Kim Jong Un, as well as his father and grandfather before him, are not stupid. It would be a great mistake to consider them as such. And like his predecessors, the dear leader knows the power of the United States, capable of erasing the small communist nation forever and in a few minutes (it is a strategic certainty). The Kim dynasty calls for international respect and tries, above all, to survive. International respect (as happened with Pakistan for example) is based on nuclear power recognition so as to re-establish relations with direct antagonists such as South Korea and the United States. The gradual increase in military pressure on the North Korean regime to achieve a political outcome, in the hope that it will not plunge into a real conflict, is a weak and dangerous element for US policy. Kim Jong-un does not intend to declare war on the United States, but hopes to prevent Washington from being prevented from attacking the ruling dynasty. It is a fundamental distinction. South Korea and Japan have been living with the threat of the North for decades. The United States, after the hysteria of the Cuban missile crisis, learned to live with the Soviet and Chinese strategic capabilities. The United States will also have to adapt to the future, but not forthcoming, North Korean intercontinental threat. Pyongyang has invested too much and is now close to creating a credible nuclear deterrent. No country can match the United States in the projection of power. If Washington decided to carry out a military attack against North Korea, even if limited, the impact would be devastating for Pyongyang. However, when considering military action, it is important to recognize the variables and gaps in intelligence that inevitably complicate political and military decision-making. The advantage of the United States in training, coordination and equipment would not guarantee the success of the mission due to the lack of intelligence. Finally, any kind of attack would trigger a large-scale war that would turn into a reasonable degree of nuclear certainty.
Slbm Test: Probable montage, real unlikely real launch
North Korea has only one ballast missile with 67 Sinpo / Gorae class meters. Pyongyang should own about 70 submarines of different sizes. Four Whiskey class submarines supplied by the Soviet Union would be, while seventy-seven Romeo class supplied by China. According to official regime information, the fleet should be composed of 20 class Romeo boats (eight 533 millimeter throttle tubes for 1.830 tons displacement), forty class Sang-O I / II (275 / 400 tons in two configurations) and ten mini submarines Yono class (two 533 mm tubes for 130 tons). Only a handful would have been reconfigured for SLBM technology. Pyongyang has never performed a ballistic test from a submarine. Last year's 24 last year, North Korea announces that it has successfully launched a ballistic missile from a submarine. The launch took place in the waters off Sinpo town, which hosts the main submarine base in the country, in the southern province of Hamgyong. The Sinpo class submarine should be the only Pyongyang carrier capable of launching diving. Unveiled in October of 2014, it is a vector of 67 meters and with a displacement of 900-1500 tons. The submarine design remembers that of the class Heroj, a project acquired by Pyongyang from Georgia in 1970. The Sinpo class carrier uses the same concept as the Soviet-era Soviet-era golf launch technology with missiles located in the rear section of the tower. Compared with previous tests, the missile has confirmed the progress of SLBM, Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile technology, which is developing in North Korea. The missile crashed into Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone. The KN-11 / Pukkuksong-1 missile should be based on the Soviet R-27 Zyb carrier. The Sinpo class can carry only one missile and launch it to 10 / 15 meters below the surface of the water. It is a depth that puts the underwater risky detection over the larger platforms. An Ohio class submarine could launch its Trident to 120 meters of depth. The specifications of the new alleged submarine of three thousand tons are wrapped in mystery, but if it existed it would be able to carry three missiles and would represent a real threat. The displacement would give it a throw capacity of 50 meters of depth. SLBM technology exposes the flanks of South Korea while the THAAD anti-missile system focuses on identifying threats from the North. The North Korean word Pukguksong translates into polaris, polar star. It is the same name as the first SLBM in the world, UGM-27 Polaris, put into service from the United States.
The solid propellant gives immediate reaction times and operational readiness. The pre-mixed fuel in solid form is stuck directly into the missile. Once the ignition has started, this can not be changed or deactivated unlike what happens in the liquid fuel. Liquid fuel flow can be controlled as well as the amount of boost produced can be adjusted, activated or deactivated. According to Pyongyang, the missile would be launched cold and the movies would confirm such statements. Vertical launch systems occur in two ways. In the hot launch, the missile is ejected thanks to the instantaneous ignition of the rocket propulsion system. Cold expulsion, such as that to be used by Pukguksong-2, is generally used in naval environments. In cold technology, the missile is ejected from the launch platform by compressed air. In submarines, ignition of the first stage or push phase occurs after passing the sea surface (the missile, wound by a gas bubble, never touches the water). The benefits are undeniable. In the case of Pukguksong-2 launched from the ground, the component designed to dissipate the heat and exhaust fumes generated by the launch of the missile is missing. The immediate initial launch process is hardly detectable by the satellite network. However, the cold expulsion is affected by its strong winds, which can alter its precision.
Launching has never been a submarine
North Korea uses two barges, nine meters for 22,5, for missile testing. The barge in Sinpo South Shipyard would have been used for at least six launches, including the Pukguksong-1 / KN-11. This is a platform that can be anchored and sunk at a set depth. The missile is placed in a centrally mounted vertical tube, with launch monitored remotely. The underwater tests are necessary before the final implementation on the submarines to optimize the expulsion technology and the entire SLBM cycle. The barge would appear to be similar to the old Soviet platform PSD-4 used in the 60 years to test the new SLBM assets. Publicly, the origin of the second barge is ignored. It may have been manufactured by North Korea, but the shipyards on the west coast have never shown activity compatible with such a project. It could have been built in some underground structure or, finally, acquired abroad as happened for the first barge. North Korea has made tremendous progress in expulsion technology from a submerged platform, but contrary to what has been said so far, launching has never been a submarine.
Nuclear Test: Unlikely
There are no external signs for an imminent test. The Punggye-ri nuclear test site is currently in standby mode. Since last March, Punggye-ri's site was considered armed and ready to host the sixth nuclear test of North Korea. The Punggye-ri site houses three horizontal underground tunnels, located at different depths, used to conduct Pyongyang nuclear tests. The first tunnel, East Portal, would be about 310 meters: it was used to blow North Korea's nuclear warhead into 2006. The other four tests took place in the second tunnel, West Portal, at about 490 meters. The third tunnel of the test facility, which has undergone adaptation work in recent months, has been used for the sixth test. The North Portal should be at a depth of 550 meters. The Punggye-ri site is 116 miles away from the volcano on Mount Baekdu. The explosive yield of the sixth test is ten times higher than that in September last year. North Korea does not currently have the strategic need to perform the seventh nuclear test.
Ballistic Test: Probable
The base near the town of Kusong, on the west coast of the country, in the northern province of Pyongang, is under observation. It has been used in all the latest tests to launch several Hwasong-12 liquid propellant two-stage missiles. The same site was used last February 12, to launch the solid-propellant Pukguksong-2 missile. Pyongyang made the first launch of ICBM last 4 July. The test was carried out to demonstrate to the world the potential range of useful action of the Hwasong-14 missile. The Hwasong 14 launched by Panghyon on the uncapped MAZKT79211 platform, has reached an altitude of 2.500 kilometers (2802 Km peak according to the North) covering a distance of 930 kilometers before crashing into the Sea of Japan within the exclusive economic zone of Tokyo . The Hwasong-14 is a two-stage version of the Hwasong-12 intermediate-level ballistic missile (IRBM) that North Korea launched for the first time last May. The Hwasong-12 system is a liquid propellant two-stage missile. The latest test dates back to last September 15, when from Sunan, the site of Pyongyang International Airport, North Korea successfully launched the KN-17 ballistic missile. It is the Scud variant ASBM (anti-ship ballistic missile) single-stage liquid propellant. The weapon system flew over the island of Hokkaido in northern Japan before crashing into the Pacific Ocean. The US Pacific Command confirms the reached altitude of 770 km and a distance covered by 3.700 km. The Hwasong-12 missile launched last August, the first on Japan in the last eight years, reached an estimated altitude of 550 kilometers before plunging into the Pacific Ocean, about 1.180 kilometers east of Hokkaido. The missile was detected a few seconds from the launch by the US infrared grid. For the sixth time since the 1998, a North Korean missile or its fragments fly over the territory of Japan.
In the event of an inoffensive launch, the international community would condemn the North by proposing further sanctions, but the military option would not be justified. It is likely that in the next hours we will see new ballistic tests from the ground.
London fires the tactics of the Falklands
Should a conflict arise (remote hypothesis) with North Korea, Britain will be at the side of the United States. Among the options evaluated by the United Kingdom, the risk-setting of a battle group based on the HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier (not yet operational). The Royal Navy operates a fleet of 77 ships. Currently, Britain does not own any aircraft carrier: the HMS Illustrious was demolished in the 2014, however there should be no delays for the new Queen Elizabeth class. Two units from 64 thousand tons provided: Queen Elizabeth and Prince of Wales. The sea trials for the HMS Queen Elizabeth began last 26 June. The air component will be deployed within the 2018, while the first operational patrol will take place in the 2020. 18 months later the HMS Prince of Wales will also enter service. The units in the Queen Elizabeth class are 280 meters long and will accommodate 36 F-35B (maximum capacity) plus a rotor flight group. Intentions, the new component embarked on the HMS Prince of Wales and the HMS Queen Elizabeth, "will guarantee an offensive capacity on vectors second only to that of the United States" (Moscow thinks otherwise). The acquisition costs of the Queen Elizabeth class (two units) and related boarded aircraft group (F-35B, the only platform able to operate on the bridge in STOVL configuration, short takeoff and vertical landing) are 14,3 billion pounds. The Queen Elizabeth class, according to the British Ministry of Defense, will reach full operational capability for the 2026. In the scenario hypothesized for North Korea, 45 type destroyers, Type 23 frigates and an attack submarine would escort the HMS Queen Elizabeth, which would host twelve US Marine Corps F-35s. Many may review tactics similar to those used to defend the Falklands, although in this case there is no risk for the British territory. Unlike the ready availability of Harrier platforms for the HMS Illustrious in the 1982, the English airline component (F-35B) for the HMS Queen Elizabeth is not yet available. It will be the United States Marine Corps to guarantee these capabilities.
Source ilgiornare.it