Covid-19: "Much confusion about the number of swabs made"

There is much confusion on the real number of swabs carried out, doubts come from the numbers on the virus provided by the Government. The pollster Lorenzo Pregliasco of Youtrend tried to see more clearly on the official data provided by the Regions on the "tamponade" that ascertains the coronavirus infection through a complex laboratory test: he found that the total day-to-day release is inflated. Because many of the people suspected of being infected are subjected to at least two tampons for safety.

In the last hours Umberto Rosini, Technical Project Manager of the Department of Civil Protection, Youtrend points out, has recognized that even the data from swabs performed so far may actually be misleading. It is in fact the total of the swabs performed and not the total of people tested.

“The number of swabs reported does not indicate the number of people tested, but the total number of tests performed. In short, if a patient is subjected to a first swab and is positive, then it can be tested at least 2 more times to verify that it is negative. For a single recovered patient, therefore, they will be counted three swabs made and not just one".

It therefore becomes impossible to estimate the true total number of people tested. Compared to the more than 296 thousand tampons officially communicated, it could be half or perhaps even a third.

And in fact the empirical experience of those who have people infected in the family is of extreme parsimony in testing those who have no symptoms, even if they have come into contact with an infected person. This is not a secondary topic, but a crucial procedure to understand if the virus-fighting machine is moving in the right direction. So much so that too Walter Ricciardi, virologist and government consultant, he called for a more massive swab campaign at this stage of the epidemic. In the scientific world, the voices of those who criticize the data analysis and communication procedure that the government is adopting are multiplying. On a blog of the Huffington Post, the physicist and former president of the Italian space agency Roberto Battiston asked the government to train "a great team for systematic research and isolation of the infected ”, appeal born precisely as a consequence of a criticism of the current data processing: “The numbers are important and must be analyzed and transmitted correctly, otherwise the listener will find wrong consequences. Then we can't blame the media that amply amplify an incorrect message. "

Covid-19: "Much confusion about the number of swabs made"