Between February and December 2020, the CGIA Studies Office reports, the overall stock of loans granted to Italian companies to face the economic crisis increased by 39 billion euros, even if the volume of guaranteed loans fielded by the Conte bis government it was over 150 billion.
If these operations nevertheless made it possible to reverse the trend that lasted continuously from the end of 2011 until the end of 2019 - a period in which the volume of bank loans to businesses fell by 300 billion euros - the bazooka fielded by the former Prime Minister Conte was unable to successfully attack the chronic lack of liquidity that historically haunts SMEs in particular.
Why, in fact, only a quarter of the guarantees made available by the State through SACE and the Guarantee Fund, which by law had to cover almost all of the loans provided with these instruments, ended up in the coffers of entrepreneurs?
Because part of the new guarantees went to fill the physiological drops in existing credit and to replace short-term loans with increases in medium-long term ones. In addition to this, it is possible that the banking system used a part of these billions also to reduce its own risks, replacing the guarantees linked to the loans it had disbursed before the advent of these legislative changes.
A way of acting that has certainly favored credit institutions, which in so doing have eliminated the risks of incurring non-performing loans, and in part also businesses, at least those that had credit lines before March last year open with institutes.
This thesis, supported by the CGIA Studies Office, takes shape after reading the results relating to the consistency of loans disbursed by banks to businesses between the end of February last year - the period preceding the introduction of the "Cura Italia", of the “Liquidity Decree” and the “Italian Guarantee” - and last December 31st.
Let me be clear: it is good to underline that, in general, the entire economic system has benefited from the application of these 3 measures, to which must also be added the moratorium on loans to families and businesses introduced by the Conte government for an overall value of another 300 billion euros. However, the chronic lack of liquidity for SMEs has not yet been resolved. Rather.
In the relationship between the account holder and the bank, the CGIA Studies Office recalled, from the beginning of this year there is another big news that risks penalizing the former in particular. In fact, credit institutions are obliged to apply the new European rules on the definition of default. In other words, banks, for example, define a small business owner as defaulting with a failure to return for more than 90 days, the amount of which is greater than both € 100 and 1 per cent of the total exposure to the banking group.
If both thresholds are exceeded, the report can be triggered at the Central Risks of the Bank of Italy which, automatically, classifies the entrepreneur as a bad payer, thus preventing him from having the help of any financial institution for a certain period of time. credit. A situation that risks affecting many VAT numbers that traditionally are short of liquidity and with great difficulty, especially at this time, in respecting the repayment plans of their bank debts.
This new definition of default will almost certainly induce banks to behave very prudently. In fact, with the lowering of the overrun threshold, we will certainly have a surge in non-performing loans. To prevent this from happening, Brussels has required banks to write down unsecured risk loans in 3 years and in 7-9 years for those with collateral. Therefore, the application of these measures will induce many credit institutions to adopt a behavior of extreme caution in disbursing loans, to avoid having to incur losses in a few years. In short, a new credit squeeze is expected for many SMEs.
In terms of guaranteed loans, the Guarantee Fund of the MISE-Medio Credito Centrale and SACE update their credit data more frequently. Through “Garanzia Italia”, for example, up to 9 February, the applications submitted by large companies amounted to 1.498 and the volumes of guaranteed loans put in place by SACE reached 21,2 billion euros. Again on the same date, thanks to the “Cura Italia” and the “Liquidity Decree”, the Guarantee Fund for SMEs received 1.703.969 applications which “generated” 136 billion in loans. These latest figures also include mini loans up to € 30 which, on the other hand, recorded 1.081.476 applications, allowing for the disbursement of 21,1 billion in loans.
