Venerdì nero in borsa. Allarmismo ingiustificato? Il persorso ad ostacoli dell’Italia

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Venerdì nero in borsa. Il premier Giuseppe Conte cerca di stemperare la situazione diventata calda, “l’Italia non è un problema per l’Europa, l’Italia vuole essere una risorsa”.

A Piazza affari l’indice Ftse-Mib crolla del 4,30 per cento, con cadute a picco dei titoli bancari, Banco Bpm (-9,02%), Banca Generali (-8,83%), Bper Banca (-8,57%) e Unicredit (-8,2%), sul listino milanese nessun titolo segna rialzi.

Si impennano rendimenti e spread, cartina di tornasole della tensione sui mercati finanziari: sui titoli di Stato BTP a 10 anni i tassi retributivi si attestano al 3,26 per cento, 35 punti base in più rispetto alla chiusura di ieri, e lo spread, il differenziale rispetto ai tassi dei Bund tedeschi, si allarga a 280 punti base. Il rialzo più forte, 45 punti base è sui Btp a 5 anni, con tassi al 2,40 per cento e un differenziale che schizza a 248 punti base. Sui Btp a 2 anni i rendimenti aumentano di 40 punti base, all’1,23 per cento e il divario si allarga a 173 punti base.

Si tratta. di  puro allarmismo perché la manovra non è stata ancora presentata nella sua interezza. Giuseppe Conte, infatti, “sono molto confidente nel fatto che quando i mercati, i nostri interlocutori, perché noi abbiamo interlocutori anche finanziari in ragione del debito pubblico che abbiamo, conosceranno nei dettagli la manovra, siccome sono tutti versati a valutare gli investimenti nel medio e lungo periodo lo spread sarà assolutamente coerente con i fondamentali della nostra economiaCome vedete è un piano di spesa e investimenti destinato a far crescere il Pil“.

Scrive Today.it, la sfida ai mercati del governo giallo verde con una energica espansione del deficit, al 2,4 per cento del Pil nel 2019, ha il potenziale di innescare un concatenamento di eventi con due sviluppi molto negativi rispetto alle regole della Bce, uno sulle banche e l’altro sui titoli di Stato dell’Italia. E potrebbero essere proprio questi due pericoli a contribuire alle forti vendite degli investitori su Btp e titoli bancari che si stanno registrando in queste ore.

Il problema di fondo è sui rating che le maggiori agenzie internazionali assegnano all’Italia. Tutte e tre attualmente attribuiscono una valutazione di affidabilità creditizia (BBB con S&P, Baa2 con Moody’s e BBB con Fitch) appena due gradini sopra lo spartiacque al di sotto del quale si finisce al livello comunemente chiamato “junk”, spazzatura. Le agenzie hanno messo sotto osservazione l’Italia per possibili declassamenti (outlook negativo), ma ad oggi prima di assumere decisioni hanno scelto di attendere le cifre concrete che verranno inserite nella bozza di bilancio.

I rischi per banche e conti correnti

Se i titoli di stato italiani finissero fuori dall’investment grade, con un doppio declassamento, o se le agenzie mostrassero un orientamento in tal senso, con un declassamento singolo combinato a un nuovo outlook negativo, in base alle regole della Bce una prima ricaduta immediata investirebbe le banche. Non potrebbero più utilizzare le emissioni pubbliche tricolori (se a un rating junk) come garanzie (collateral) per aggiudicarsi i rifinanziamenti della stessa Bce. In pratica, avrebbero una parte rilevante del loro bilancio esposta su un segmento del tutto inutile per aggiudicarsi i rifinanziamenti cruciali per effettuare poi erogazione di prestiti e operazioni nell’economia.

Le banche italiane potrebbero ancora ottenere rifinaziamenti della Bce, ma fornendo come garanzie altri titoli con rating adeguati. Ovviamente il crollo di valore delle emissioni italiane crea poi subito un effetto meccanico di perdita di valore della banca che li possiede.

La seconda grande ricaduta negativa riguarderebbe gli stessi titoli pubblici italiani, a causa del piano di acquisti della Bce (il quantitative easing). L’istituzione attualmente è orientata ad interrompere gli acquisti netti dopo il mese di dicembre. Questo canale si chiuderà subito per l’Italia se perdesse i requisiti di rating di acquistabilità (almeno un investment grade).

Da non dimenticare come la Bce ha ad oggi rilevato 356 miliardi di titoli pubblici italiani che giungeranno progressivamente a scadenze: l’impegno dell’istituzione, per mantenere condizioni di politica monetaria espansiva, è di rinnovare questi bond a scadenza, ma non se i titoli italiani perdessero i rating minimi di ammissibilità sugli acquisti della Bce, questa non potrebbe procedere agli acquisti a scadenza.

Uno scenario devastante perché oltre alle vendite degli operatori privati (ad esempio i fondi pensione o i fondi obbligazionari vincolati a determinati rating) sui mercati si scaricherebbero anche le vendite (non riassorbite) della Bce, con un potenziale effetto-spirale che potrebbe far salire ulteriormente tassi e spread e costi di rifianziamento del debito pubblico.

Il pericolo della Troika

L’unica scappatoia sarebbe cercare di ottenere una deroga, un “waiver” che tuttavia, sempre in base alle regole della Bce, implica non pochi requisiti. Il più importante è quello di aver chiesto e ottenuto un piano di sopporto da parte del fondo salva Stati europeo, l’Esm, che comporterebbe la negoziazione di un programma di correzione assieme al fondo stesso e alla Commissione europea. Con quello la Bce potrebbe anche attivare il suo scudo antispread (l’Omt). Ma questo implicherebbe rivolgersi alle istituzioni Ue (Troika) con ben altro atteggiamento rispetto a quello attuale.

 

Venerdì nero in borsa. Allarmismo ingiustificato? Il persorso ad ostacoli dell’Italia

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